- 26 May 09, 13:14#121538
According to some news sources, Porsche were incredibly close to bankruptcy in March and were only saved by a bridging loan from VW. They still require funding to continue operations....is Porsche in serious trouble...?
I'm fairly confident that Porsche won't go bankrupt, however I will be interested to see how this one plays out.
German magazine Der Spiegel (via The Local) is reporting that times are so tight at Porsche that it actually skirted bankruptcy for three days in March. The German automaker received a 700 million euro loan ($978 million USD) from VW to stay out of trouble, but needs another 2.5 billion euros (nearly $3.5B USD) to stay in business.
So how is the saga likely to end? Christian Breitsprecher, of Oppenheim Research, thinks that Porsche will be forced into raising cash via other, potentially painful, avenues. This could involve a rights issue, but also a sale of assets, perhaps even the whole carmaking business, to Volkswagen. This would leave Porsche as a purely financial entity, holding a sizeable--but not controlling stake--in Volkswagen, which has a blocking shareholder in the shape of the state of Lower Saxony. Volkswagen would be the happy owner of Porsche's operations, sending Porsche's dreams of controlling the merged entity crashing to the ground.
Either way, Volkswagen's ordinary shares, boosted by Porsche's hubristic takeover strategy, will likely slide as the buyout premium evaporates. Warburton expects Volkswagen's ordinary shares to plummet to 65 euros. Porsche's stock is likely to fall as well, given the potentially dilutive or operationally damaging road ahead.
Earlier this month cash-rich Volkswagen said it was suspending merger talks with Porsche due to the lack of a constructive atmosphere and apparent annoyance at Porsche's unclear finances. Porsche had been hoping earlier this year to fulfill its need for cash by holding a joint rights issue with Volkswagen -- but that idea was nixed by Volkswagen. Porsche could hold a rights issue by itself, but that would significantly dilute the stakes of the founding Piech and Porsche families.
I'm fairly confident that Porsche won't go bankrupt, however I will be interested to see how this one plays out.