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[onelapdown]

Just thought I'd set out exactly what the situation in each championship is and what each party needs...



As it stands following the Chinese Grand Prix, the Drivers' Championship looks like this:

1. Hamilton, 94 points, 5 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
2. Massa, 87 points, 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third

Hamilton cannot win the title if his points are level with Massa's, since he would then trail Massa either on wins or second places and Massa would be declared the winner. So that means:

* IF MASSA WINS: Hamilton must finish in 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th
* IF MASSA FINISHES SECOND: Hamilton must finish 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th
* IF MASSA FINISHES THIRD OR WORSE: Hamilton does not need to score points.



The Constructors' Championship is a more complicated affair.

1. Ferrari, 156 points, 7 wins, 4 seconds, 6 thirds
2. McLaren, 145 points, 6 wins, 3 seconds, 4 thirds

Again level points hand the title to Ferrari on wins, second places or thirds, so McLaren need to score at least 12 points more than Ferrari, meaning both Mclarens must finish, with the following car in 7th or better, to have any chance.

* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-2: Both Ferraris must finish 3rd & 8+ or 4th & 7+ or 5th & 6th
* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-3: One Ferrari must finish 2nd or 4th, otherwise both cars 5th & 8+ or 6th & 7th
* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-4: One Ferrari must finish 5th or higher, otherwise both cars 6th & 8+
* IF McLAREN FINISH 2-3: One Ferrari must finish 6th or higher, otherwise both cars 7th & 8th

There are many other permutations, but I won't list them all. It's interesting that if McLaren do get a 1-2 Ferrari will need both cars to score even if their lead car finishes third, so McLaren are certainly not out of it yet...

[AKR]

The Constructors' Championship is a more complicated affair.

1. Ferrari, 156 points, 7 wins, 4 seconds, 6 thirds
2. McLaren, 145 points, 6 wins, 3 seconds, 4 thirds

Again level points hand the title to Ferrari on wins, second places or thirds, so McLaren need to score at least 12 points more than Ferrari, meaning both Mclarens must finish, with the following car in 7th or better, to have any chance.

* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-2: Both Ferraris must finish 3rd & 8+ or 4th & 7+ or 5th & 6th
* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-3: One Ferrari must finish 2nd or 4th, otherwise both cars 5th & 8+ or 6th & 7th
* IF McLAREN FINISH 1-4: One Ferrari must finish 5th or higher, otherwise both cars 6th & 8+
* IF McLAREN FINISH 2-3: One Ferrari must finish 6th or higher, otherwise both cars 7th & 8th

There are many other permutations, but I won't list them all. It's interesting that if McLaren do get a 1-2 Ferrari will need both cars to score even if their lead car finishes third, so McLaren are certainly not out of it yet...

I will simplyfy it for you. Level points Ferrari always win. Ferrari are thereby guranteed the title if they can secure 7 points from anywhere. If Ferrari get 7 points it doesn't matter what McLaren gets, Ferrari wins.

[onelapdown]

Not untrue, AKR, but to analyse the situation properly it's a little simplistic. What happens if Ferrari don't get 7 points? You'll be looking my post up, won't you?!

[AKR]

Not untrue, AKR, but to analyse the situation properly it's a little simplistic. What happens if Ferrari don't get 7 points? You'll be looking my post up, won't you?!

Ok what I meant is if McLaren get Maximum points, i.e. First and Second, Ferrari will require 7 points to win.

[onelapdown]

To be honest my problem is I got too used to the old 10-6-4-3-2-1 system can't do the arithmetic quick enough with the new system.

[McLaren Fan]

The constructors' title is virtually over. McLaren are too far behind and have decided there is no point taking risks to almost certainly win nothing. The FIA have ensured Ferrari will win at least one title this season.

[onelapdown]

You disappoint me, McLaren Fan. You have proved yourself unworthy of that name...

Seriously though, it's really not that difficult to imagine circumstances where it could happen. Unlikely, but possible. Don't forget, at 3-0 down against Milan, I still believed in my beloved Liverpool, so I do have form on talking gibberish that turns out true.

[Hanwombat]

Ferrari, like in 2007, get the Constructors given to them!

[AKR]

Onelapdown, looks like analysis made the main news...... Christopher posted an article on the main website. Title permutations: McLaren still in constructors’ hunt. Well done and good work buddy.

[AKR]

Ferrari, like in 2007, get the Constructors given to them!

Nothing has been or will be given by the FIA as no conspiracy exists in the real world. That belongs in the fantasy realm of the McLarenites. Now if it pleases you, open that special portal and enter that realm.

[McLaren Fan]

You disappoint me, McLaren Fan. You have proved yourself unworthy of that name...

Seriously though, it's really not that difficult to imagine circumstances where it could happen. Unlikely, but possible. Don't forget, at 3-0 down against Milan, I still believed in my beloved Liverpool, so I do have form on talking gibberish that turns out true.

The problem is, though, that McLaren have said themselves that it's unlikely they'll win the constructors' title, so aren't prepared to risk losing the drivers' title by going for it. This weekend, the team are only interested in securing what it takes to get Hamilton the drivers' title. As the team sees it, they don't want to risk reliability problems with the car, or Hamilton trying one of his overambitious overtaking moves; something nasty could happen and the team could end up with no titles again. McLaren are stuck between a rock and hard place: it's against their nature to play things safe, but they've got to weigh up the risk factor and what they could gain. And the team, I suspect, also don't want to have gone a full decade without having won a title. McLaren are well into a team record for the longest period without a title. It's hard to be optimistic about winning the constructors' title when the team have said that it's very much their second priority. If I were running the team, I'd give it a go. I don't believe Hamilton is safer on the second row of the grid. The best thing for him would be for Kovalainen and he to lock out the front row of the grid and try to build up a good lead over the Ferraris. Then, if the Ferraris are all over Hamilton's gearbox, he could consider allowing them past. So, I'm not in full agreement with McLaren's view on things this weekend, but I can understand and respect why the team made its decision not to worry too much about the constructors' title.

[Gaz]

Ferrari, like in 2007, get the Constructors given to them!

Nothing has been or will be given by the FIA as no conspiracy exists in the real world. That belongs in the fantasy realm of the McLarenites. Now if it pleases you, open that special portal and enter that realm.

what relm would that be? where the FIA loves everyone and dosn't give stupid fines and penalties out to Mclaren to benefit Ferrari.

Take off your rose colored spec's the FIA is bias against Mclaren and Pro Ferrari and for the sports governing body that is a utter disgrace.

Ferrari didn't win in 07 they were gifted it by the FIA and if you think otherwise then i'm sorry but your wrong.

[AKR]

Ferrari didn't win in 07 they were gifted it by the FIA and if you think otherwise then i'm sorry but your wrong.

McLaren cheated in 2007 and got punished. No gifts there. Just the long arm of the law saying who is the boss. Had Ferrari cheated, then they to would of gotten punished. Simple.

[onelapdown]

Onelapdown, looks like analysis made the main news...... Christopher posted an article on the main website. Title permutations: McLaren still in constructors’ hunt. Well done and good work buddy.

That's the second post of mine he's turned into an article this week!

And I have to say you're right AKR, McLaren lost the Constructors' title last year because they were fairly penalised. I thought the fine was excessive, but even though I'm a McLaren man I had to say the CC loss was fair do's.

Anyway, McLaren Fan, don't give up hope just yet! If Massa stalls on the grid or gets punted off at the first corner I can't see McLaren holding back. So like I say, it's not difficult to see circumstances where it could happen. It's not likely, but hope costs nothing. Walk on, walk on...

[McLaren Fan]

Like I say, it's not a case that I've given up. It's rather that the team are only going to go for the constructors' title if a reasonable, low-risk chance arises.