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[What's Burning?]

I've got a chunk of 401k money on the sidelines as I figured things were very high in August and we'd be headed for a correction soon enough. So getting half the picture right is not enough. What's the consensus on the bottom of the correction we seem to be in at the moment?

[CookinFlat6]

We have a long way to go to call it any meaningful correction, that term is misleading in the recent era. If you want to know if the value will become more reasonable allowing entry at good prices for long term - then theres a way to go.
However If you want a pull back so you can enter and make a profit then the question is if the big mutual funds see it as value yet because they are what kept the prices way above reasonable value as they have money from guys like yourself and have to stick it in the market high priced or not.

Right now the Us stocks have crossed an important psychological level - they have given up all gains for the year, so best to see what happens from here before piling in, because when your mom and pops etc look at their 401s etc and start calling for their dough so they can at least have some left to get drunk on before the whole place turns to sh!t then you might start to see some capitulation with your taxi drivers etc getting margin called silly and before you know it everyones dumping every thing and you are left wondering why you stood in front of a bus full of panicking amatures

So cut a long story short I dunno, the Us equity market is all rigged, bonds are better but too high to buy now Like i said this is very important psychological level, so hang on see if it cracks, and if it holds out then would probably be as good as a any a time to load up

[spankyham]

In the US one of the keys I'm currently watching is the P2E. I'm seeing reports with it at 25+. There's evidence that secular bull markets turn at 10 which needs either a lot more downward adjustment or some fairly sharp increases in corp profits.

If you have mountains of time read read read. If not, a fairly simple and effective strategy which back tests really well is switching from EFT and reverse EFTs (or you can use LICs in place of the postive EFTs). Just look for a source with a good bt history.

[CookinFlat6]

technical indicators and anaylsis and historical events are as good as reading tea leaves when it comes to knowing what the markets will do next week or next month. Trying to impose some kind of inteelctual structure or reasoning on what the markest are doing is an exercise in futility and is the main reason most amatuers lose their shirts.

the market is ruled by 1 thing and 1 thing only - the behaviour and perception of a finite set of informed playas

Its like saying its gonna rain on Sunday because some bullsh!t calculation I made that shows it has rained every single 3rd sunday of the 2nd month and putting money on it. thats as dumb as putting money on a horse or on Ferrari. Instead of waste time with pretty calculations and charts and interesting sounding formula - to make money involves watching people, what they do, how they are feeling, what motivates them etc, only then can you have a slightest idea when to buy and when to sell

the only people who talk crap about indicators and clever patterns that they are the first ones in history to notice are brokers who dont know sh!t about jack and are making it sound plausible to get you clicking and giving them some commissions

read read what exactly? old news? what happened last year? and that tells you what will happen next? common sense works better than memorised crap, watch the price listen to the news, get a feel for how people are disposed, and when the news is full of talk of the market going up you sell and vic versa, when its full of doom and gloom.......

hey but what do i know? i though ICEs had sparkplugs

[What's Burning?]

Thankfully it's a long term thing. I don't actively micro manage this but given the situation and the peak of the market I felt there would be a pull back. I'm ahead of the game as is if I jump back in now, but simply knowing if there's a little more depth to this bottom would be nice.

It's amazing how stubborn a bull market we've been in and at least here in the US it seems to driven primarily by the government keeping the dollar cheap to borrow which doesn't seem like it will last much longer. From the superficial reading I do it's hard to know what's already been priced in and what hasn't.

[CookinFlat6]

try this site WB, for the stuff you wont read elsewhere, I know you will appreciate it

http://www.zerohedge.com/

[spankyham]

It's amazing how stubborn a bull market we've been in and at least here in the US it seems to driven primarily by the government keeping the dollar cheap to borrow which doesn't seem like it will last much longer. From the superficial reading I do it's hard to know what's already been priced in and what hasn't.

I'm definitely not a pro in this field, and perhaps I've just been very lucky. But I believe reading lots of quality stuff helps. The US market P2E is a reality point for me, and as I said the pivot point is a long way off.

Perhaps put it all on red