Who voted 'Most likely no' and why? would be good to hear the reasoning behind this choice
Simple. Until some team demonstrates that they can match Red Bull's ability to make the most of whatever rule-set is put before them and react to challenges through in-season development, I see no reason to doubt their ability to repeat.
They have really only done this once before, at the start of the previous reg era. Other teams, such as Brawn (Brackley), Williams, Mclaren have achieved this in the past. However I concede that RBR have appeared to be best at in season development recently. They called the last era correctly, there is no evidence they as a team can repeat it ahead of Ferrari or McLaren. Or Merc
Much of their success may be due to their seemingly unlimited budget, something that remains a constant in this season of change. I also think the challenges they face are lesser than the other major teams. Their focus is on designing a chassis to suit one driver, around which the team is built and has been for several years.
Designing around a driver comes after the new regs and conditions are mastered, not in the first year. RBR cannot replicate the Seb/car symbiosis we saw at RBR after 2010 in 2014
The fact that they do not have to worry about designing an engine (some see this as a disadvantage) as well, is another plus. After all their engines are supplied by Renault, who are no doubt eager to continue their dominance. After all who has more experience with turbos?
Merc have a seperate division to worry about engines, they have triple redundancy with complete F1 engineering teams
Turbos are not the differentiator anymore, since the 80s turbos are de rigeur, it's the ers side that's important now and Merc made the best kers and have more control of a vertical assembly and design structure than Renault
Last, but not least .. the addition of Riccardo is an upgrade, not because he is a better driver than Webbo, but because he will be less of distraction. Red Bull will be for 2014 at least, a team united in purpose, with a massive budget and all the right players to make the most of it.
Now 2015 ... that may be a different story.
With the lack of testing, brand new tech, need for rapid development and need for feedback, 2 quality proven drivers could be more useful at harvesting WCC points amid exploding engines than the 1 man and his dog model
We shall soon find out if the status quo can survive a concerted effort by the establishment to force changes. Let's find out if Newey is truly a Chapman genius and if Seb is a Fangio driver