Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

[Hammer278]

Since we have quite a few 'bold' predictions by certain members (myself included) I'm curious to see what's the general consensus in the forum regarding this 'pre season hype' reg Merc's position for 2014. It's either Championships or nothing, a very simple poll.

50 day poll. Vote away!

You can all vote option 5 to vent....but vote another too! You have 2 options. I AM genuinely curious reg this topic.

[CookinFlat6]

Great thread Hamms

You left out an option for those who feel Mercedes will be undone by having too many engineers

[CookinFlat6]

Who voted 'Most likely no' and why? would be good to hear the reasoning behind this choice

[acosmichippo]

I did purely judging from past performance (especially regarding tires) and the departure of Brawn. I understand that 2014 is a whole different animal, but I don't see enough changing for them to make the jump to championships.

[CookinFlat6]

I did purely judging from past performance (especially regarding tires) and the departure of Brawn. I understand that 2014 is a whole different animal, but I don't see enough changing for them to make the jump to championships.

Makes sense especially Brawns departure

But

Past performance? - they came second last year
2014 is a different animal, but enough hasnt changed to make the jump from 2nd to 1st especially if RBR slip?
The 2014 car is a brand new mechanical concept, it's unlikely the tyre issues ( which were resolved last year) will be inherited
Also there is the small advantage of being a power unit maker, which RBR are not and which Ferrari who were beaten by Merc last year are

Fair enough though each of your points are still valid

[operaman]

Who voted 'Most likely no' and why? would be good to hear the reasoning behind this choice

Simple. Until some team demonstrates that they can match Red Bull's ability to make the most of whatever rule-set is put before them and react to challenges through in-season development, I see no reason to doubt their ability to repeat. Much of their success may be due to their seemingly unlimited budget, something that remains a constant in this season of change. I also think the challenges they face are lesser than the other major teams. Their focus is on designing a chassis to suit one driver, around which the team is built and has been for several years. The fact that they do not have to worry about designing an engine (some see this as a disadvantage) as well, is another plus. After all their engines are supplied by Renault, who are no doubt eager to continue their dominance. After all who has more experience with turbos? Last, but not least .. the addition of Riccardo is an upgrade, not because he is a better driver than Webbo, but because he will be less of distraction. Red Bull will be for 2014 at least, a team united in purpose, with a massive budget and all the right players to make the most of it.

Now 2015 ... that may be a different story.

[What's Burning?]

On the flip side no one picked definitely no, yet.

[CookinFlat6]

Who voted 'Most likely no' and why? would be good to hear the reasoning behind this choice

Simple. Until some team demonstrates that they can match Red Bull's ability to make the most of whatever rule-set is put before them and react to challenges through in-season development, I see no reason to doubt their ability to repeat.

They have really only done this once before, at the start of the previous reg era. Other teams, such as Brawn (Brackley), Williams, Mclaren have achieved this in the past. However I concede that RBR have appeared to be best at in season development recently. They called the last era correctly, there is no evidence they as a team can repeat it ahead of Ferrari or McLaren. Or Merc

Much of their success may be due to their seemingly unlimited budget, something that remains a constant in this season of change. I also think the challenges they face are lesser than the other major teams. Their focus is on designing a chassis to suit one driver, around which the team is built and has been for several years.

Designing around a driver comes after the new regs and conditions are mastered, not in the first year. RBR cannot replicate the Seb/car symbiosis we saw at RBR after 2010 in 2014

The fact that they do not have to worry about designing an engine (some see this as a disadvantage) as well, is another plus. After all their engines are supplied by Renault, who are no doubt eager to continue their dominance. After all who has more experience with turbos?

Merc have a seperate division to worry about engines, they have triple redundancy with complete F1 engineering teams
Turbos are not the differentiator anymore, since the 80s turbos are de rigeur, it's the ers side that's important now and Merc made the best kers and have more control of a vertical assembly and design structure than Renault

Last, but not least .. the addition of Riccardo is an upgrade, not because he is a better driver than Webbo, but because he will be less of distraction. Red Bull will be for 2014 at least, a team united in purpose, with a massive budget and all the right players to make the most of it.

Now 2015 ... that may be a different story.

With the lack of testing, brand new tech, need for rapid development and need for feedback, 2 quality proven drivers could be more useful at harvesting WCC points amid exploding engines than the 1 man and his dog model

We shall soon find out if the status quo can survive a concerted effort by the establishment to force changes. Let's find out if Newey is truly a Chapman genius and if Seb is a Fangio driver

[geetface9]

I'm in the middle. Won't be surprised if they do win one or both championships, but won't be surprised if red bull take it away again

I didn't vote though, because there was no "maybe" option

[Jabberwocky]

I was going to write an article for the writing competition on what could happen next year for all the teams but I suppose some of the ideas could go here.

I think it is safe to say that all of the manufacturer backed teams are going to be ahead the customer teams on the engine front. However at this point in time no one really know which engine is the best. so on the engine front Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes has a 1/3 chance of winning the championship.

As already mentioned each engine manufacturer has requested some change for next year. Mercedes has asked for wider rear tyres, either because they are concerned about the amount of torque the engine can produce, or that at the moment the engine is peaky at producing power and lacks drive ability. Added to this the historic W04's issues with it chewing its rear tyres, this could be a major problem for concern.

Is the FRIC system going to be used next year? If they drop the idea a lot of their data about using the Pirelli tyres is with using this system, so they will be behind on information in this area (I know that the compounds will change next year, but the base concept of the tyres will remain the same.) If they do keep the FRIC system I believe that the different feel to the back end has hampered Hamilton slightly in '13 which as he is the stronger of the 2 Mercedes drivers will effect his attempt at the WDC.

As everyone seems to say that historically Mercedes was 2nd last year, look what happened the last time Brackley produces a title contender car. The following year (The W01) was poor. However that time they had depleted their design work force, where as this time they have enough technical directors to carry out a pitstop.

As for Brawn leaving, I think how the whole season goes for Mercedes will be a domino effect of testing and maybe the first few races. I think everything will go swimmingly until they hit a problem. It will be at that point will we see how the new management structure copes without Brawn being at the head of the beast. So they will either gel and bring the car forward or fall into civil war.

[spankyham]

I haven't voted simply because we have no idea what each team has produced. As operaman says, until someone proves they have better performance, you have to stick with Red Bull as the front runners.

[CookinFlat6]

I haven't voted simply because we have no idea what each team has produced. As operaman says, until someone proves they have better performance, you have to stick with Red Bull as the front runners.

But as jabber says, we do have an idea of what each teams has produced by the requests put forward for changes in the regs. For example Lotus requested more time and have now confirmed they will not be at Jerez, therefore confirming that the request for more time meant they have run out of time
Renault have similarly requested more time. Merc have not, therefore Merc are more ready within the agreed time than Renault.

Agreed that RBR would be the default flagbearer, however this would be akin to sticking our heads in the sand till the first race. Assuming we prefer to speculate, and assuming we are willing to rise to the challenge posed by the OP then to bet against Merc ONLY because of past history could be a cop out

History provides us with facts that say that everytime there has been an engine change, the engine makers and works teams have gained more than the none engine makers. So already we have rational reasons to place Merc Ferrari and RBR ahead of the rest. And as mentioned the facts so far point to Renault being less prepared than the other two.

[spankyham]

Honestly I place very little credence on these purported requests as we have no idea of the context they were placed in and, we know half the time teams make these requests as red herrings or to throw other teams off.

As I said previously we just don't know. So, for me, I'll just wait to see some concrete evidence before making a judgement about who will be winning championships this year.

[CookinFlat6]

As everyone seems to say that historically Mercedes was 2nd last year, look what happened the last time Brackley produces a title contender car. The following year (The W01) was poor. However that time they had depleted their design work force, where as this time they have enough technical directors to carry out a pitstop.

As for Brawn leaving, I think how the whole season goes for Mercedes will be a domino effect of testing and maybe the first few races. I think everything will go swimmingly until they hit a problem. It will be at that point will we see how the new management structure copes without Brawn being at the head of the beast. So they will either gel and bring the car forward or fall into civil war.

Lets not ignore the context when we look at the facts. Mercedes is a completely differently funded and managed entity than anything the Brawn team could have imagined in their wildest halucinations. Merc from 2012 to 2013 showed a massive improvement and extreme competence at development and problem solving. If we look at history thats the relevant event, and not Brackley in 2010

Brawn leaving could leave a power vacuum and cause problems, however as Lewis has pointed out, Brawn is a leader and not a Newey. The team have had all the time in the world to prepare for and replace his exit. Apart from exploiting regs his biggest input has been creating the 2014 team reality and so there is no reason at all that he uniquely should be missed as far as running the team.

Again the OP is about betting against the team to win, there have to be good reasons to put money on them failing to improve from 2nd to first

[CookinFlat6]

Honestly I place very little credence on these purported requests as we have no idea of the context they were placed in and, we know half the time teams make these requests as red herrings or to throw other teams off.

As I said previously we just don't know. So, for me, I'll just wait to see some concrete evidence before making a judgement about who will be winning championships this year.

Why not wait till one team has mathematically won the 2014 title, by your reasoning that is the only concrete evidence available, everything else is a speculation. Until the title is wrapped up there is nothing concrete in F1.

Common spanks, live dangerously, let your hair down a bit, grab your balls and jump over the edge. apart from Ferrari (for loyalty reasons) if I gave you $100 only for a bet, would you bet against Merc?