- 22 Jul 12, 16:34#313353
Okay, so since we are now halfway done with the season I ran some race simulations based on the statistics of the races we've seen so far. I modeled each driver's performance and simulated the remaining races 49 times based on past performance. The following rankings show the percentage of these 49 simulations that each driver won, which roughly translates into each driver's probability of winning the championship based on performance so far:
1. Fernando Alonso - 55.1%
2. Seb Vettel - 18.37%
3. Mark Webber - 10.2%
4. Lewis Hamilton - 6.12%
- Kimi Raikkonen - 6.12%
5. Jenson Button - 4.1%
First thought: even though we have a ways to go, Alonso has a really firm grip on this championship. Our senses might tell us that with such a long way to go anything could happen, but given how the season has unfolded so far, it would really take a Herculean effort to displace Nando- either really intense development or some seriously bad luck for Ferrari.
One of the main reasons for this is that Webber, who is in 2nd, actually has only a remote chance of winning. This is because despite his remarkable consistency (see my post on driver consistency rankings) he just isn't getting on the podium enough. And with the big spread in points between 1st, 2nd, 3rd and the rest, finishing on those steps is crucial despite everything we and the commentators and the drivers have said about how consistency is the most important thing.
The matter of fact is that it's not: you need to get on that podium. And that's why Vettel, despite failing to score points twice, has a much greater chance of winning than his teammate. He has been on the podium 4 times vs. Webber's 2 and that makes a world of difference.
Same goes for Raikkonen. His consistency is remarkable. He does well in every race and never seems phased by changing conditions or the tyres. But his car can't win races (or at least it hasn't so far). Therefore his chances of winning the championship are slim to almost nil. Lotus may need to throw caution to the wind at this point and start pushing the car harder to get on the podium and get wins even if it means sacrificing some consistency.
Button is effectively out, as is Rosberg who didn't win a single simulated season. In their case, it's their lack of consistency that has damaged them, despite impressive performances to win races.
So the lessons are:
1. If Lotus want Kimi to have any chance at the title they need to let loose and start pushing harder for wins even if it means they crash out of some races or fail to score points consistently as they have done so far. To get closer to the title they need wins or at least get on the podium and get at least a couple of wins, not consistent 5th places, at this stage.
2. Consistency's value may have been exaggerated. Yes, the top driver has also been the most consistent driver, but Webber and Raikkonen, for all their consistency, have a lesser chance than Vettel who has had a more erratic season but has a greater chance of getting on the podium and winning in any given race than either of those two. Even Button, who has been terribly inconsistent, has about as big a chance as Raikkonen simply because Button has climbed on the podium a few times AND gotten a win, while Kimi's 3 podiums haven't seen him on the very top step.
So despite the tyre issues and such you still could be in a better position pushing for that win or for 2nd rather than settling for 4th. At least at this stage of the season.
This could all very well translate into some more aggressive driving by some drivers/teams in the 2nd half of the season (particularly Raikkonen/Lotus, Button/McLaren, and perhaps Webber but that's more complicated). Unless of course these teams/drivers are more interested in finishing 3rd/4th in the constructor's championship instead of challenging for the title!
1. Fernando Alonso - 55.1%
2. Seb Vettel - 18.37%
3. Mark Webber - 10.2%
4. Lewis Hamilton - 6.12%
- Kimi Raikkonen - 6.12%
5. Jenson Button - 4.1%
First thought: even though we have a ways to go, Alonso has a really firm grip on this championship. Our senses might tell us that with such a long way to go anything could happen, but given how the season has unfolded so far, it would really take a Herculean effort to displace Nando- either really intense development or some seriously bad luck for Ferrari.
One of the main reasons for this is that Webber, who is in 2nd, actually has only a remote chance of winning. This is because despite his remarkable consistency (see my post on driver consistency rankings) he just isn't getting on the podium enough. And with the big spread in points between 1st, 2nd, 3rd and the rest, finishing on those steps is crucial despite everything we and the commentators and the drivers have said about how consistency is the most important thing.
The matter of fact is that it's not: you need to get on that podium. And that's why Vettel, despite failing to score points twice, has a much greater chance of winning than his teammate. He has been on the podium 4 times vs. Webber's 2 and that makes a world of difference.
Same goes for Raikkonen. His consistency is remarkable. He does well in every race and never seems phased by changing conditions or the tyres. But his car can't win races (or at least it hasn't so far). Therefore his chances of winning the championship are slim to almost nil. Lotus may need to throw caution to the wind at this point and start pushing the car harder to get on the podium and get wins even if it means sacrificing some consistency.
Button is effectively out, as is Rosberg who didn't win a single simulated season. In their case, it's their lack of consistency that has damaged them, despite impressive performances to win races.
So the lessons are:
1. If Lotus want Kimi to have any chance at the title they need to let loose and start pushing harder for wins even if it means they crash out of some races or fail to score points consistently as they have done so far. To get closer to the title they need wins or at least get on the podium and get at least a couple of wins, not consistent 5th places, at this stage.
2. Consistency's value may have been exaggerated. Yes, the top driver has also been the most consistent driver, but Webber and Raikkonen, for all their consistency, have a lesser chance than Vettel who has had a more erratic season but has a greater chance of getting on the podium and winning in any given race than either of those two. Even Button, who has been terribly inconsistent, has about as big a chance as Raikkonen simply because Button has climbed on the podium a few times AND gotten a win, while Kimi's 3 podiums haven't seen him on the very top step.
So despite the tyre issues and such you still could be in a better position pushing for that win or for 2nd rather than settling for 4th. At least at this stage of the season.
This could all very well translate into some more aggressive driving by some drivers/teams in the 2nd half of the season (particularly Raikkonen/Lotus, Button/McLaren, and perhaps Webber but that's more complicated). Unless of course these teams/drivers are more interested in finishing 3rd/4th in the constructor's championship instead of challenging for the title!
