Lewis in Silverstone.
I think that McLaren will be a dog to drive around silverstone. Not to mention, Kovy is damn fast around Silverstone.
We keep hearing McLaren staff say "the car is good but theres just something small wrong with it" if they fix that then there's no reason why we can't see a win for Lewis in silverstone.
There seems to be a difference between the McLaren and Ferrari cases, though. The Ferrari just seemed to be a mediocre package that could have done with some work. Their early-season results were very much worse on paper than they should have been due to poor reliability and combinations of team/driver mistakes. Raikkonen could have scored a podium in Melbourne, Massa could have finished much higher up the grid if there hadn't been that qualifying mistake in Malaysia, he was running as high as third in China before the car hit problems and he should have had fourth in Spain rather than sixth. Similarly, Raikkonen has struggled with KERS all throughout the season so far and I can't think that better reliability may have helped him score a couple more points here and there.
On the other hand, the McLaren car is probably the worse package but some early-season luck and good driving, mostly from Hamilton, saw them score more points than Ferrari. However, their car is fundamentally flawed in the aerodynamics area and usually, when things like that happen, they don't come back in to contention unless everything goes right for them (see Renault's 2008 transformation, which although quite impressive
did rely on a bit of luck at times). They'll probably be back winning by the end of the season, but the MP4-24 never had any chance of becoming a title-contending car within a twelve-month period. At least, not without compromising the MP4-25 in the same way as the extra work put in to the MP4-23 did to its successor.
That's my view on it, anyway.