I don't know, I think it was still the sensible choice.
1) Nico has not had any bad luck this season.
2) Lewis has not done a race practice session, his car bailed out and he had no experience on race settings this weekend
3) Nico had 4 cars in between him and Lewis at the start.
I see too many reasons against me choosing Lewis to win, even in hindsight.
"Nico has not had any bad luck this season" that gives us an even bigger reason to chose Hamilton over Rosberg.
Rosbergs gearbox was an extra race older so even more of a reason.
Lewis hadn't done a race practice but that doesn't really matter, it would of put him on a slight back foot but he still has his teammates data and over the difference in their short runs the differential between their average lap times it would be equalized and Hamilton would of got faster and faster as he actually did in the race.
Seriously, 4 cars is nothing they were obviously going to breeze past the other cars and Hamilton was in second by lap 4... 6 seconds to make up over 48 laps is pretty easy, only need to go just over a tenth faster and like with my previous comment he was 3-4 tenths faster in their short-run averages so 2 tenths per lap was pretty much obvious.
Hamilton would of won regardless of Rosbergs issue because of the right tyre choice by Hamilton's garrage, he could of walked home with the set he had or could of overtaken and then had another pit when Rosberg pitted and been on a level pegging but ahead.