- 15 Mar 16, 14:46#439538I do have a Wordpress account so I can read the article and here is what is says for those interested...
"Formula 1 is back for another go-around of a glorious clusterfuck consisting of big sums of money, multiple different interests, confusion, long unsolved questions mixed with poor solutions to questions no one asked in the first place all sprinkled over with arguably one of the biggest identity crises the series has had with public interest in the sport on a decline…….. and we haven`t even gotten to the first race. Yet, lets be fair – Formula 1 has had these kind of issues for most of its existence. And while the identity crisis is arguably one of the bigger ones the series has had, it is also nothing that new. Furthermore, all of that can be solved with one simple thing: good, fun, exiting racing that will translate into an exiting title fight. If you get that right then it seems as if all of the other issues take a backseat and the series is back on a right track. So, can 2016 season provide that? With preseason testing over, lets take a look at F1 in the wait for the 2016 season and whether that will translate into a season of good racing. This is not so much a full detailed preview but a line of thought that focuses mainly on the biggest question – can the Mercs be beaten this year?
“Anything happens in Grand Prix racing and it usually does.”
That quote from the legendary Murray Walker sums up pretty well that in the end trying to predict a complex sport like F1 (or any sport for that matter) is always kind of pointless. Sure we can use the analysis of preseason testing laptimes and race simulations, but nevertheless there are just too many variables to get a clear picture.
Of course these laptimes from testing give you some idea and I have taken that into account but since I am just a simple eager fan, I figured using some history to help me make predictions for the upcoming season is as good a way as any to do it, since in the end we will only really find out when lights go out in Melbourne anyway. So lets have some fun with it.
Mercedes vs Ferrari in 2016 season = Mclaren vs Ferrari in 2000 season?
The biggest question of the preseason is probably that will the ever-improving Ferrari manage to mount a title challenge to ever-powerful Mercedes this season? Testing laptimes give some hope for that to happen, but of course Mercedes focused more on mileage than pace and fairly equal race simulations both teams did, isn`t exactly to be taken as pure gold either. We can be fairly sure that Mercedes is still very very strong and that Ferrari has taken another step forward. So, as I said before, let`s try to predict the outcome with a bit of history to help, since in many ways the situation at the front of the field reminds me the time before the start of the 2000 F1 season.
Of course there are many differences but lets look at the similarities first.
Mercedes in 2016 is in many ways in the same role as Mclaren back in the year 2000. On both occasions we have a team that is coming from the heels of 2 back to back drivers titles archived largely thanks to taking maximum benefit of a major technical regulations revamp two years prior, that enabled them to be usually the fastest package out there with regulations remaining stable for the third year in a row.
Mercedes has a lead driver who has won the last two championships and is clearly at the peak of his powers looking for a third successive title being also a clear favorite. Lewis Hamilton in 2016 = Mika Häkkinen in 2000.
At Mercedes, as was the case at Mclaren in 2000, the lead driver has been paired up for years with a very strong nr 2 driver who does not want to play the second fiddle and who at times has proven to be able to beat the lead driver… only to fall short in the consistency department and basically being close but no cigar. Nico Rosberg in 2016 = David Coulthard in 2000.
Generally speaking Mercedes are the favorites to win as was Mclaren in 2000 but with a looming, increasing threat in the form of a resurgent championship winning team with a long title drought. In 2000 it was Ferrari, and in 2016 …… well its Ferrari again. As was the case after the 1998 rules revamp, Ferrari couldn`t take advantage from the 2014 revamp and were left with a lot of work to do.
That work has meant replacing a lot of staff to bring new fresh talent into the team and completely reorganize the team. It happened at Ferrari during the other half of 90s and has happened again since 2014.
Before the start of both seasons( 2000 and 2016) Ferrari had displayed clear signs of progress by getting closer and closer to the leading team during previous seasons proving that the change in staff was starting to pay off. But as was the case in 2000, the question”have they finally done enough?”, remained in the air?
In both cases leading the Ferrari team was/is a multiple world champion at the peak of his powers and motivation to archive his dream of winning the title with Ferrari after working towards making it more and more capable in the previous year(s). O, right, and in both cases they are german`s (not that it matters but while we are talking about similarities). Of course by that I mean Michael Schumacher in 2000 = Sebastian Vettel in 2016
So these are the similarities and before we look at the differences, lets see what happened in the 2000 season between these 2 teams… some brilliant racing and a battle for the title between two evenly matched teams happened along with many nice on-track battles.
The balance of power was constantly shifting between Mclaren and Ferrari and after a shaky start, Mclaren came back strong with Mika Häkkinen eventually leading the championship with 3 races to go also with Coulhard in contention for most of the season making it a three-way battle until the last few races. But only for Ferrari and Michael Schumacher to bounce back emphatically to win the last 3 races and claim both titles to end Ferrari`s long title drought.
So does that mean that Ferrari will do the same in 2016 and finally dethrone the reining world champion`s. Does that mean Vettel is going to beat Hamilton and Rosberg to the title in a closely fought season between two great teams at the top of their game and that we are going to get some brilliant racing between them and their drivers? Well, lets wait and see but there are also some differences to consider between 2000 and 2016 preseason situations that debunk that little theory of mine.
Regulations are a lot stricter. Back in 2000 with almost unlimited testing and a lot less strict regulations on car development, the teams were able to make a lot quicker progress. In 2016 it is a very different story with limited testing and a lot stricter rules on car development meaning Ferrari might have not had enough time to close the gap completely if at all since Mercedes is not standing still.
Ferrari was already very strong in 1999 and strong by the end of 1998 and even won the constructors title in 1999. Ferrari in 2015 although close at times was still clearly weaker package compared to Mercedes and a complete mess in 2014. So Ferrari and Schumacher went into 2000 with a lot better odds. Also Schumi was sidelined with leg injury for most of 1999 and couldn`t mount a title challenge the car of that year enabled – so more confidence in 2000 than in 2016.
F1 now is a lot more complex and at times more confusing on the whole compared to 2000.
Mercedes is likely not going to be hampered by reliability as much as Mclaren in 2000.
But there are also differences that could still mean we are in for a season of great title fight and racing.
Rosberg seems to be a tiny bit closer to Hamilton on pace than Coulthard was to Häkkinen around 2000 and the relationship between them is a lot more shall we say agressive and sour than between the 2 Mclaren boys back in 2000 making for more potential exitement.
“The Iceman” is no Eddie Irvine or Rubens Barrichello. With all respect to 2 great drivers and cool personalities that Irvine and Barrichello are, they were number 2 drivers and I would argue that, despite what has happened in last two season, Kimi Räikkönen is not. I am sure he has set his sights on the title. His form is one of the bigger questionmarks of the season but there are reasons to believe that he could make it a potentially four-way title fight and be on top form. Lets quickly analyse it. At his peak and “on-form” he has been considered one of the most naturally talented drivers in history…..that was around 2002-2007 or so. Then there were doubts about his motivation during next 2 seasons resulting in his sabatical only to make a comeback to prove that he is still a very much a top class driver with Lotus in 2012 and 2013. And then a complete disaster in 2014 being emphatically beaten by Alonso and although on clearly improved form in 2015, also being emphatically beaten by Vettel. So, he is not getting any younger – why would his recent form change this year? Well in 2013 he proved that he was still capable of winning. That was not long ago. In 2015 he was clearly better than in 2014. Also, he has been described as a very taleted driver but one who can only exploit his talent with a very specific car setup that among other things has to have a very oversteery and responsive front end. The technical changes to this years Ferrari very much complement these requirements. He clearly still has got what it takes talent wise and at 36 is not quiet “over the hill” yet. Lets see if he can recapture the form that has made him a world champion and a race winner and mix things up further at the front to provide a memorable title fight. Hamilton vs Rosberg vs Vettel vs Räikkönen sounds a lot better than Hamilton vs Vettel which doesn`t sound bad in in on itself.
There also seems to be a super competitive midfield much like in 2000 . Williams is actually, according to them, aiming at Ferrari with successful pairing of Massa and Bottas. Force India continuing Jordan`s tradition of being the feisty underdogs with arguably underrated talents in Hulkenberg and Perez. Also, never, no matter how hopeless they look, ever discount Red Bull. Probably wise to look out for Toro Rosso starting out strong with new Ferrari engine and there is a reason to think that Sauber, Manor and Haas will be fairly close at the back of the grid. Aaand and Mclaren-Honda, Renault – yeah… I will not even try to comment. For the sake of sport, lets hope that both can make big steps towards their title-aspirations and give their talented drivers what they deserve eventually.(probably not this year).
So to sum it up, 2016 seems more likely to provide a season full of good racing and title fight than few previous ones…or it will be a boring snoozefest that will bring sports off-track problems into a bigger limelight once more. Ah, why am i even blabbering here, lets just get on with racing and find out. Little bit more and and it`s go go go!"
myownalias • The Englishman in Kansas • Twitter: @myownalias
