- 04 Mar 13, 03:19#348302My 2 cents worth after testing has been completed and predictions are to be made.
It never fails to amaze me how people talk in stark contrasts about cars and performance when they are fully aware that they simply do not know the full story - "expert pundit" and "forum members" alike. Gary Anderson trying to extrapolate times based on guestimates of fuel loads without any consideration of tire compound or condition is IMO, a prime example.
Hence my aversion to comments claiming this car has a few tenths over that car. Similarly I think it is a total mistake to have pecking order lists.
The sort of track, weather conditions, surface, driver, tire performance and "setup" on the car in the specific conditions make pecking order lists irrelevant. Truth be told, different cars + setup + specific conditions will produce a different "pecking order" each time you change one variable.
There are so many people saying all will be revealed in Australia - personally I don't think so. Like last year we will leave Australia with a winner and lots of variables and questions. 7 races into last year it was still unclear who really was the best.
I think setup is far more important than a perceived one tenth advantage one car is supposed to have over another. Getting your setup right was critical last year and, IMO, it will be more-so this year. Merc got things right in China last year and look at what a difference it made. There was no major change in their car there, it was mostly, IMO, them simply getting the setup right.
So, what do I see as the determining factors in deciding this years races:-
1) competitive car
2) setup
3) tire management
4) driver
5) team performance
If you can place a tick next to each of those boxes then you have a chance of winning that race.
In summary - my thoughts about cars and tenths. I'd rather have the 4th or 5th car in a pecking order list with the best driver and getting the setup and tire management spot on. From a Tifoso's perspective I don't know if the F138 is first or fifth in the pecking order, but I do think we have a competitive car, the best driver on the track and a team clearly working very cohesively and performing at a high level.
I think Lotus/Kimi, RedBull/Seb and Merc/Lewis will arrive in Australia with 1 and 4 on my list ticked. Both McLarens arrive there with 1 and 5 ticked.
"He was the fastest driver I ever saw - faster even than Fangio"
________________________- Mike Hawthorn on Alberto Ascari