FORUMula1.com - F1 Forum

Discuss the sport you love with other motorsport fans

Formula One related discussion.
#337959
You don't obtain the data, and then decide what statistic to use. That is one of the cardinal rules of statistics.

I didn't see you watching over my shoulder as I wrote this article.
How did you do that? :yikes:

The statistics are chosen based upon the criteria many people pick when judging overtaking.
Passing a HRT 23 times (in Vettel's case) is pretty irrelevant and uninspiring, so I factor in what's more telling.
Again, if you think it unreasonable, please provide me with what you consider better criteria.

That's why it cuts down more and more to which level of car was overtaken in which circumstances.
For instance, I more value Hamilton's overtake on Hülkenberg on pretty equal tires in Spain for 11th, then Button's overtake on Räikkönen for third, with the Lotus tires' having fallen off the cliff.

...who is the better overtaker or what the order is...

Please find where I uttered the word 'better overtaker'.
#337961
You people do realize that homogeneous statistics through entire season is impossible?


Of course - that's what I just posted above basically.
#337963
You don't obtain the data, and then decide what statistic to use. That is one of the cardinal rules of statistics.

I didn't see you watching over my shoulder as I wrote this article.
How did you do that? :yikes:

The statistics are chosen based upon the criteria many people pick when judging overtaking.
Passing a HRT 23 times (in Vettel's case) is pretty irrelevant and uninspiring, so I factor in what's more telling.
Again, if you think it unreasonable, please provide me with what you consider better criteria.

That's why it cuts down more and more to which level of car was overtaken in which circumstances.
For instance, I more value Hamilton's overtake on Hülkenberg on pretty equal tires in Spain for 11th, then Button's overtake on Räikkönen for third, with the Lotus tires' having fallen off the cliff.

...who is the better overtaker or what the order is...

Please find where I uttered the word 'better overtaker'.


But you don't have to explicitly say that. That is implicit in literally all of the different categories that are posted. The whole purpose is to discount certain subjective factors (which can't be separated from each other in reality) as well as actual overtakes in order to try to show 'statistically' who is making the most overtakes. Doing that is categorising certain overtakes as more 'meaningful' than others, which has the knock-on effect of categorising the drivers' overtaking ability.
#337967
Please find where I uttered the word 'better overtaker'.

But you don't have to explicitly say that. That is implicit in literally all of the different categories that are posted. The whole purpose is to discount certain subjective factors (which can't be separated from each other in reality) as well as actual overtakes in order to try to show 'statistically' who is making the most overtakes. Doing that is categorising certain overtakes as more 'meaningful' than others, which has the knock-on effect of categorising the drivers' overtaking ability.

So, tell me what categories you then expected (given the data available).
You and others can keep bitching about it, but if you can't tell me WHAT you feel is wrong, it's just complaining for the heck of complaining.
#337969
Overtaking is a skill, part of a drivers race craft, the driver with the most overtakes is not laying claim to best overtaker.
I think when people were saying Vettel can't overtake they were referring to the skill itself. This was in 2010 when he had a few coming togethers. Since then he has had a lot more cleaner moves and you would say is a good overtaker. But I would say Alonso Hamilton and even Button are better at it.
#337971
Please find where I uttered the word 'better overtaker'.

But you don't have to explicitly say that. That is implicit in literally all of the different categories that are posted. The whole purpose is to discount certain subjective factors (which can't be separated from each other in reality) as well as actual overtakes in order to try to show 'statistically' who is making the most overtakes. Doing that is categorising certain overtakes as more 'meaningful' than others, which has the knock-on effect of categorising the drivers' overtaking ability.

So, tell me what categories you then expected (given the data available).
You and others can keep bitching about it, but if you can't tell me WHAT you feel is wrong, it's just complaining for the heck of complaining.


I already did raise that point, and yet you already implied in response that the data wasn't applicable to in depth analysis (in your own words you referenced it to being "analysis of a trend"). But in depth analysis yields more accurate data to provide a basis for claims.
#337972
Please find where I uttered the word 'better overtaker'.

But you don't have to explicitly say that. That is implicit in literally all of the different categories that are posted. The whole purpose is to discount certain subjective factors (which can't be separated from each other in reality) as well as actual overtakes in order to try to show 'statistically' who is making the most overtakes. Doing that is categorising certain overtakes as more 'meaningful' than others, which has the knock-on effect of categorising the drivers' overtaking ability.

So, tell me what categories you then expected (given the data available).
You and others can keep bitching about it, but if you can't tell me WHAT you feel is wrong, it's just complaining for the heck of complaining.


I'm sorry you feel like that mnmracer. It's not complaining though, or at least not on a personal level, purely on a professional one. My point is that something indicative could be done in quantitative form (though not conclusive - that's impossible), but it needs so many different factors to be presented in numerical form with deviation etc. It's the sort of thing that would require extensive modeling and would take a qualified statistician probably weeks or even months (I'm not exaggerating) of analysing and data collecting to give a true picture, it's not something that can be done at such a simple level.

As I said, I have no problem at all with the information being presented as a here's what it looks like if you discount certain factors - let's discuss - heck that's the whole point of a discussion board. But I do have a problem with it being titled or described as 'statistics', because it isn't really statistics. It's like me going for a jog round the block then trying to compare myself to an Olympic marathon runner - that's actually a pretty good analogy.

Again, I enjoy the information as a discussion point and I appreciate the work you put into it, maybe you should take a qualification in research methods or something like that? I genuinely think from the sorts of things you discuss that you would really enjoy it and likely be very good at it with practice.
#337973
You people do realize that homogeneous statistics through entire season is impossible?


Homeogeneous statistics through pretty much anything in the real world is impossible. There will always be random or worse semi-random occurrences. E.g. the number of overtakes can be affected by the number of opportunities for overtaking, which in turn can be affected by other factors, e.g. how good the driver is at qualifying.

For the random factors, we would like to measure over a larger number of races, which would allow the random factors to cancel themselves out. That's where the concept of the standard error of the mean comes from and is why it decreases the more trials you have.

For other factors such as larger or smaller numbers of opportunities to overtake, then one thing that can be done is to acknowledge this problem, and therefore take any statistics obtained with an academic pinch of salt.

There is the possibility of deciding exactly what statistic to use, and to perhaps use a more complicated statistic. But this must be done before data collection, otherwise subconscious or conscious biases may affect the choice of statistic in light of the data. But, if a non-obvious statistic is going to be used, then it should be justified (again, before data is collected). If a really convincing argument for using a more complicated statistic cannot be created, then the default is to use the simpler one, giving caveats in analysis.

Designing these more complicated statistics is much much harder than some people on this thread seem to assume. E.g. you might want to count a pass on a leading car more than a pass on a tail end car. But a tail end car at Monaco might be much harder to pass than a car with similar power at a track with an excessively long DRS zone into a suitable corner. The weather might affect things. Trying to make the statistic "better" often falls into the trap of not considering enough ways in which one pass can be more valuable than another. The data just isn't homegeneous enough (yes Vlad, this hasn't wandered completely away from what you are saying). And once some passes are dropped, well then the number of trials goes down, and the standard error of the statistic rises. So even if the statistic does measure "something" more accurately, that additional accuracy (and more) can easily be lost due to greater variance due to random sampling.
Last edited by FerrariFan63 on 02 Dec 12, 21:32, edited 1 time in total.
#337974
Overtaking is a skill, part of a drivers race craft, the driver with the most overtakes is not laying claim to best overtaker.
I think when people were saying Vettel can't overtake they were referring to the skill itself. This was in 2010 when he had a few coming togethers. Since then he has had a lot more cleaner moves and you would say is a good overtaker. But I would say Alonso Hamilton and even Button are better at it.

[youtube]CPnQC3eEYqg[/youtube]
This though was pretty awesome and required some large attachments.
#337975
So all it comes down to is a simple request to reword the thread title to 'Overtaking in 2012: numbers and analysis'?
Just say so next time instead of argueing over it for half a dozen posts :whip:
#337976
So, tell me what categories you then expected (given the data available).
You and others can keep bitching about it, but if you can't tell me WHAT you feel is wrong, it's just complaining for the heck of complaining.


I feel that I have told you quite a few times in sufficient detail what is "wrong". You can discount that as "complaining for the heck of complaining" if you want to. Or, you could go away and learn something about how statistics and analysis works. And this will give you better knowledge that may well be very useful in your life ahead. If you think you're right, then why don't you go off and find reliable third-party information that supports your claim, and school me.

But I suspect that you're caught up in a false sense of pride that will make you stubbornly insist that you're right, and you won't go off and learn how things actually work, and probably won't even go off and research it.

I've written what I've written here not particularly for you, but because when I've challenged incorrect use of statistics and other ignorance on some other forums that occasionally I've received a PM for some third party reader who has thanked me for writing what I did because they did go out and check up what I'd written, found it was right, and learned something. And that's why I keep on doing it.

So all it comes down to is a simple request to reword the thread title to 'Overtaking in 2012: numbers and analysis'?
Just say so next time instead of argueing over it for half a dozen posts :whip:


Just changing the title to "numbers and analysis" won't change the fact that you're calculating statistics. A better strategy might be to learn something about stats before you start using them. It's not rocket science and there are many good resources. And I believe that learning something about stats wouldn't just improve one thread on a F1 forum, but would help you for the rest of your life.
#337977
Let's face it, this discussion is nice and all, but when it comes down to it, do we remember the stats and the umpteen interpretations of them or so we remember the one real pass this year with a double dose of extra cojones... Massa's pass on Senna in Singapore, everything else pales in comparison.

[youtube]bSnX2QTsQlY[/youtube]
#337982
That was a hell of a move. It's also called "If I crash my car I'll end up with another 0 result = Unemployed so pls help me God" overtaking manouvre. :hehe:
#337986
...

Of course it could be done much more in-depth, GIVEN INFINITE TIME, but such is not available.
That's why I don't go around proclaiming "this or this driver is the best overtaker, and this is my back-up".
I am not claiming to have the time to do such an in-depth research, nor do I claim this is.
I present the data in the best context I feel this data can be presented.

So please tell me, given this processed set of available data, what could have been improved?
Should I have just let this data go to waste? Or at least make use of it as good or bad possible?
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7

See our F1 related articles too!