...... You have to agree the redbull is so strong at the moment. I do hope Ferrari have got 1/3 of a second stashed somewhere. Let's hope the updates work
I completely agree Red Bull has the edge, and, in Qualifying, it is significant, I put this down to their DDRS. But, in the race, I don't believe there is anything like 1/3 of a second difference between the F2012 and the RB8.
Sadly, barring a freak occurrence for Vettel or some rain, I can't see Fernando qualifying ahead, which means however good his race pace is, it's going to be a massive struggle for him to come back.
There is little chance that Ferrari, without a DDRS, will be able to improve enough to compete at qualifying. Red Bull have the DDRS working well, and their copy of the DDRS has IMO completely turned their season around. Ferrari did try to get it working - that's one of the major things they worked on during their recent straight-line testing. So, being realistic, it is unlikely the F2012 will qualify ahead of the RB8.
Having said that, the F2012 is most definitely, IMO, a match for the RB8 in terms of race pace. It is hard, but not impossible to pass. The undercut will be the obvious area for attack. Also tire management, the F2012 seems to have the edge there. The Ferrari, like the McLaren has a lot more straight line speed than the RB. If the RB8 finds itself behind for whatever reason, it will find it doubly hard to pass. Qualifying is absolutely critical for the Red Bull team.
One last thing, Fernando was faster than Seb over the final third of the race in India (and we know Seb had pushed the RB8 to the maximum). What's more, Nando did that with an old donk, whereas Seb was using a brand new engine. Seb has no new engines left, both Felipe and Nando still have a new engine left. That is nothing major, perhaps 2 percentage points per race in terms of power and consumption, but Seb has played all his new engine cards.
Seb and Red Bull are in the driving seat IMO, but I also think Nando and Ferrari are in with a fighting chance. I don't think it will take a "freak" happenstance to let Nando win, but it would take mighty teamwork and error-free performances to enable the Tifosi to celebrate a WDC.