FORUMula1.com - F1 Forum

[zpetrov]

Okay, so for my first post I just wanted to share some numbers on how the season has unfolded so far, and especially to look at driver consistency in scoring points (so not in fast laps or overall pace, just scoring points).

So first I look at the standard deviation in points scored and rank drivers from the smallest standard deviation (most consistent in terms of points scored) to the largest (least consistent).

Most consistent drivers in terms of points scored (only drivers that have at least 1 podium finish)

1. KIMI RAIKKONEN
2. Lewis Hamilton
3. Mark Webber
4. Romain Grosjean
5. Fernando Alonso
6. Seb Vettel
7. Sergio Perez
8. Pastor Maldonado
9. JENSON BUTTON

Okay, so those familiar with stats should realize that the standard deviation sucks as a measure for this kind of data for various reasons, but especially since the dispersion between points granted for each place changes dramatically across the Top 10 spots (hence a driver that consistently finishes in the last 4 points positions will have less variance than a driver that consistently finishes in the Top 4).

So here is a better way to look at consistency:

Most consistent drivers in terms of the ratio between the range of points scored and average points scored (lower ratio = more consistency):

1. LEWIS HAMILTON 2. Fernando Alonso
3. Seb Vettel 4. Mark Webber
5. Kimi Raikkonen 6. Romain Grosjean
7. Nico Rosberg 8. Paul Di Resta
9. Kamui Kobayashi 10. Sergio Perez
11. Bruno Senna 12. Jenson Button
13. Felipe Massa 14. PASTOR MALDONADO

OKay, now we're talking. This confirms that consistency counts- the 4 most consistent drivers are Top 4 in the championship. But beyond that things are interesting.

Great showing from Paul Di Resta, who outperforms the Saubers in consistency if not in points. We don't talk about him as much as we do about Perez, but Di Resta has not only outperformed his teammate, he has been remarkably good at nabbing points when the opportunity presents itself.

Kamui gets in ahead of Perez largely because he picked up points at 1 more race than Perez has (4 vs. 3).

Button and Maldonado really need to perform more consistently. We all know that, but Button being behind Bruno Senna is shocking.

Also, Nico Rosberg may be 5th in the championship but his and Merc's inconsistency shows in this measure, and it corroborates the notion that it's not so much MSC that is having a hard time but that Merc are struggling with putting in consistently good performances, both for reliability and pace-related reasons.

[madbrad]

Here's a crazy idea for a first post:
viewforum.php?f=14

[LewEngBridewell]

LH would enjoy reading this article, after the woes of last season.

[zpetrov]

LH would enjoy reading this article, after the woes of last season.

I would have done the same analysis for last year to see how Lewis has improved, but it's meaningless since everything is so different from a technical perspective sadl

[racechick]

What an in depth first post!! Welcome to the forum

[What's Burning?]

There was a member mnmracer that spend quite a bit of time last year posting records... it was a year of records actually. he was also a Vettel fan, and perhaps his lack of posting this year reflects that diminished Red Bull/Vettel dominance or perhaps there simply aren't (any?) records being broken this year? But that would be difficult to believe, there are F1 records all of the time, we may even tie or break one of the most incredible records of all time this year of 9 different drivers winning a GP in one season.

Statistical data like this however is much more black and white, and I for one love to compare the factual data versus the commonly held perceptions and see where they simply don't line up. Thanks for the post, now go give yourself a proper introduction will ya?

[darwin dali]

There was a member mnmracer that spend quite a bit of time last year posting records... it was a year of records actually. he was also a Vettel fan, and perhaps his lack of posting this year reflects that diminished Red Bull/Vettel dominance or perhaps there simply aren't (any?) records being broken this year? But that would be difficult to believe, there are F1 records all of the time, we may even tie or break one of the most incredible records of all time this year of 9 different drivers winning a GP in one season.

Statistical data like this however is much more black and white, and I for one love to compare the factual data versus the commonly held perceptions and see where they simply don't line up. Thanks for the post, now go give yourself a proper introduction will ya?

One record broken already: 7 different winners in the first 7 races!

[The Second Coming]

Okay, so for my first post I just wanted to share some numbers on how the season has unfolded so far, and especially to look at driver consistency in scoring points (so not in fast laps or overall pace, just scoring points).

So first I look at the standard deviation in points scored and rank drivers from the smallest standard deviation (most consistent in terms of points scored) to the largest (least consistent).

Most consistent drivers in terms of points scored (only drivers that have at least 1 podium finish)

1. KIMI RAIKKONEN
2. Lewis Hamilton
3. Mark Webber
4. Romain Grosjean
5. Fernando Alonso
6. Seb Vettel
7. Sergio Perez
8. Pastor Maldonado
9. JENSON BUTTON

Okay, so those familiar with stats should realize that the standard deviation sucks as a measure for this kind of data for various reasons, but especially since the dispersion between points granted for each place changes dramatically across the Top 10 spots (hence a driver that consistently finishes in the last 4 points positions will have less variance than a driver that consistently finishes in the Top 4).

So here is a better way to look at consistency:

Most consistent drivers in terms of the ratio between the range of points scored and average points scored (lower ratio = more consistency):

1. LEWIS HAMILTON 2. Fernando Alonso
3. Seb Vettel 4. Mark Webber
5. Kimi Raikkonen 6. Romain Grosjean
7. Nico Rosberg 8. Paul Di Resta
9. Kamui Kobayashi 10. Sergio Perez
11. Bruno Senna 12. Jenson Button
13. Felipe Massa 14. PASTOR MALDONADO

OKay, now we're talking. This confirms that consistency counts- the 4 most consistent drivers are Top 4 in the championship. But beyond that things are interesting.

Great showing from Paul Di Resta, who outperforms the Saubers in consistency if not in points. We don't talk about him as much as we do about Perez, but Di Resta has not only outperformed his teammate, he has been remarkably good at nabbing points when the opportunity presents itself.

Kamui gets in ahead of Perez largely because he picked up points at 1 more race than Perez has (4 vs. 3).

Button and Maldonado really need to perform more consistently. We all know that, but Button being behind Bruno Senna is shocking.

Also, Nico Rosberg may be 5th in the championship but his and Merc's inconsistency shows in this measure, and it corroborates the notion that it's not so much MSC that is having a hard time but that Merc are struggling with putting in consistently good performances, both for reliability and pace-related reasons.

ZPetrov, brilliant stuff. I hate to ask but can you provide updates throughout the rest of the season. I won't go as far as to suggest the frequency...it appears to be a lot of work so if you are willing, you decide how often you can do it. Cheerz.

I'm just saying...

[Hammer278]

Nice post mate! Much more useful than some statistics of driver with most fastest laps/overtakes/wins, blah blah...and I echo TeamMcLarens sentiments...much appreciated if you could keep this up during the season, at your own pace.

Welcome to the forum btw.

[f1ea]

Cool

[zpetrov]

Hey all, thanks for the positive feedback, I appreciate it.

I know this isn't a flawless measure, but I'll work hard on coming up with better ways to use the numbers to judge various aspects of performance in this topsy turvy season. Soon I'll incorporate things like drivers' ability to work their way through the field during the race, qualification consistency, etc. (i.e. I have this idea of how to penalize drivers that put in really fast laps but end up killing their tyres in order to downgrade their consistency ranking).

Hopefully that will be somewhat useful in evaluating drivers and teams, especially those that are further away from the very top.

For now, here is an update of consistency in points scored after the Valencia race (based on the range/mean ratio):

1. FERNANDO ALONSO
2. Kimi Raikkonen <- has scored points in every race but 1 so far and has more podiums than Vettel!
3. Mark Webber <- his ability to consistently finish 4th is incredible!
4. Lewis Hamilton
5. Seb Vettel
6. Paul Di Resta <- has now moved ahead of Grosjean and Rosberg
7. Nico Rosberg
8. Romain Grosjean <- retirement not his fault, but this is now the 4th race he and his Lotus have failed to score points
9. Sergio Perez
10. Kamui Kobayashi
11. Jenson Button
12. Bruno Senna
13. Nico Hulkenberg
14. Pastor Maldonado <- continues to slide after another aggressive performance
15. Michael Schumaher

Kimi Raikkonen and Alonso continue to do a remarkable job. Alonso's efforts are obvious, but Raikkonen is really putting in a shift this year.

Obviously this is a team effort, so Romain Grosjean's big drop-off relative to Raikkonen is mostly due to his car's failure, but nonetheless Raikkonen has picked up points in every race but one so far while Romain has missed out on points in 4 races, which reduces his standing.

Paul Di Resta continues to impress. Yes, he finished behind Nico today, but his ability to keep putting points on the board in the middle of the Top 10 regardless of weather conditions, track type, or opponents' strategies is remarkable

Hulkenberg's ability to pick up points consistently in the past 4 races has pushed him above Pastor Maldonado . I think people will really start asking questions of Maldonado after this race. His erratic driving has already attracted attention even as early as Australia, but today he yet again was too aggressive. For the Maldonado fans- I don't fault your driver for speed, he is brilliantly fast. But it's hard to argue that whereas Senna has picked up points in 4 races, Maldonado won 1 race and has picked up points in only 1 other race besides that. That seriously damages Maldonado's ranking according to the way my measure is constructed.

[LRW]

Here's a crazy idea for a first post:
viewforum.php?f=14

What a crap way to welcome a new member. So what if he hasnt started in the Introduction thread.

I thoroughly enjoyed his/her first post!

[vaptin]

Alonso has scored points in every race so far I think.

[Ferrari man 009]

Alonso has scored points in every race so far I think.

Yep, after Hamilton's crash today he is now the only driver to do so this season so far!

[madbrad]

Here's a crazy idea for a first post:
viewforum.php?f=14

What a crap way to welcome a new member.

You're presupposing I should welcome him