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[LewEngBridewell]

Lotus and Kimi Raikkonen have both stated that they believe the team is the 3rd quickest behind McLaren and Red Bull. And the aim is to race fully at the front. I think this is a fully achievable aim. An accurate gauge of the teams' form is still difficult to attain at this stage, but it seems that McLaren have an edge over Red Bull, the latter seemingly more competitive in race-trim than in qualifying.

Behind these two, things are vague. Mercedes have speed aplenty in qualifying, even more so than Red Bull, but only a sole point has been scraped up. Ferrari have been woeful in qualifying, but Fernando Alonso has brought the car home in excellent positions by the time the chequered flag has dropped. Lotus and Raikkonen are adamant that, bad luck aside, the team are ahead of Merc and Ferrari and thus capable of slugging it out with the top two.

I agree. The potential is massive, in my opinion. Raikkonen has had two disastrous qualifying sessions, and yet both times has raced strongly towards the front. Romain Grosjean has been stunning is qualifying, but has twice binned the car in the opening couple of laps (although the accident with Maldonado was more of a racing incident).

Do we think Lotus can get their act together and race properly at the front? Are wins possible for the team from Enstone? Or will the nightmares of 2011 repeat themselves, and great promise turn to naught? Interesting

[darwin dali]

Not sure why they talk themselves up and put pressure on their team...

[andrew]

Not sure why they talk themselves up and put pressure on their team...

They've got to aim for something.

[What's Burning?]

Me likey competition.

[scotty]

Here's the article that (i assume) inspired this thread:

Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean are ready to emerge as McLaren and Red Bull Racing's main threat for victory, reckon their Lotus team, if the duo can finally enjoy a trouble-free weekend.

The Lotus E20 has shown promising potential in the first two races of the year - especially in qualifying – but it has not been able to prove just how good it is in the races yet.

Grosjean retired early on in Australia and Malaysia following crashes, while Raikkonen's form has been hindered by getting knocked out in Q1 at Albert Park and then suffering a gearbox penalty at Sepang.

Those circumstances mean that Lotus does not yet know for definite how quick it is, but trackside operations director Alan Permane has reason to believe that the potential is there for the team to be best of the rest behind the leading two teams.

"It would be nice to have a straightforward race with no penalties, and no crashes from Romain after the first couple of corners," Permane told AUTOSPORT.

"I think it is McLaren and Red Bull Racing at the front, and then I think we are there. I know Mercedes were third on the grid in Malaysia, but their race pace is nothing special.

"We saw [Nico] Rosberg pit for some new inters in Malaysia when we were racing him, and I thought we were going to be in trouble there. But his pace was then the same, if not worse than ours. Mercedes will get on top of it, but at the moment their race pace isn't a threat.

"And although Ferrari did a great job in the race in Malaysia, if they are going to be qualifying 10th or 12th, while we are third and fifth and a second ahead of them in qualifying, it is going to make a difference.

"It will not take them long to improve, and they will throw everything that have got at it, but we have got stuff coming as well.

"It's going to be a good battle. To be in a development race with them, Red Bull Racing and McLaren – who are proper big boys – means it will take everything we've got to stay with them."

While some teams – like Sauber and Ferrari – appear to have better race pace compared to their qualifying form, Permane reckons that Lotus is strong enough to be as good on a single lap as it is in the race.

"In qualifying trim we've shown our car is good," he said. "We could have been on the front row, or even right at the front, with Kimi in Malaysia.

"On race pace it is more difficult to say, because we haven't seen it, but there is no reason to think it won't be good. All through testing the car has looked easy on the tyres, and if you have the raw pace then you just need to put the fuel in and go.

"We won't see that though until we get a normal race. So we just want to qualify both cars in the top ten, have no penalties, no gearbox problems, no crashes at the first few corners and then have a good dry race. Hopefully in China we can do that."

Permane thinks that having a car like Sauber, that appears exceptionally good on Sundays, may not be ideal if the speed is not there in qualifying.

"When you get to the front and can race at the front, you have a clear track and you get dragged along and the confidence builds," he said on the back of Sergio Perez's stunning drive in Malaysia. "There is no doubt that they have a quick car in race trim, that is for sure.

"But they are not so good in qualifying. Maybe it is that easy on tyres that they cannot turn them on for the first lap in qualifying, and then by the second lap the shine has gone off them so they are not working properly.

"Those characteristics will help them in the race – because they will have lower wear and lower temperatures than others, so it may well be that. But on a more normal situation, when you qualify at the front, and have that pace, you will go away from them and they will get caught up in the midfield.

"Ultimately I would rather have the car we have now, even though the Sauber does look strong in race trim."

Remember this team was won championships in the near past, so this shouldn't be abnormal for them to aim for this. I'll probably reserve judgement on this myself just now, until we get a more representative race from Lotus, and also from Schumacher's Mercedes.

But what the hell, let's make some comparisons based on lap times from the first two races and see what happens. Comparing the final stints in Malaysia, where the drivers were on dries, Raikkonen was around a second a lap quicker than both Mercs (all cars were on new hard compound tyres). Compared to Webber on used mediums, Raikkonen was slower at the start of the stint but started going quicker around the halfway mark of the stint. Hamilton was also on used mediums in the final stint, was faster for the first 5 or so laps, but for the remaining 10 or so afterwards Raikkonen was faster. Take all of that with a pinch of salt though, cause of track conditions, traffic (for the Mercs) etc.

Australia is harder to compare cause Raikkonen was in traffic early on, although i did notice that the car seems to be better than several others (including McLaren, but not Red Bull interestingly) at the end of stints which suggests it was moderately nice to it's tyres, which is a good sign when combined with the one lap pace they clearly have.

[What's Burning?]

Lap times alone aren't a clear indicator of pace. Drivers will push when they have to, and McLaren didn't have a reason to push in Malaysia deeper into the stints and in the wets they were pulling away from the filed in leaps an bounds so car set up played the biggest factor in the race.

Mercedes is the big unknown here, Ferrari has the biggest potential gain on the table, and Red Bull is chasing McLaren. So much of what happens on race day is dependent on what happens in qualifying, and often races are won and lost in the first handful of laps simply because of gaps developed early on that are impossible to overcome regardless of race pace after half the race is done allowing the leaders to drive more conservatively. The close nature of the cars this year means that it's not so cushy up front when compared to last year and there's going to be a lot more defensive driving.

Me likey 2012.

[Jabberwocky]

I always find 3rd is middle and up.

[What's Burning?]

I always find 3rd is middle and up.

Not on a bike.

[racechick]

Well they've shown they have the potential and they have won before, so no reason why they cant. If Mercedes cant get that quali speed into race pace; and Ferrari dont capitalise on the potential of the car (I dont mean Alonso, because he clearly capitalised on the situation he was presented with last race) I mean Ferrari get a better understanding of how to get the best from the car in more normal conditions than last race.

[Hansy]

But they ARE the third best team at the moment. The problem is they aren't capitalizing on their pace while Ferrari and Mercedes don't sort their problems out.

[racechick]

But they ARE the third best team at the moment. The problem is they aren't capitalizing on their pace while Ferrari and Mercedes don't sort their problems out.

Yes this is true. Lost opportunities.

[LRW]

I always find 3rd is middle and up.

Not on a bike.

Good Job Lotus aren't racing bikes here then....

[Hammer278]

They are definitely third best, unfortunately they also have a driver who has completed approximately 3 racing laps in 2012 after 2 races.

[LewEngBridewell]

They are definitely third best, unfortunately they also have a driver who has completed approximately 3 racing laps in 2012 after 2 races.

I'm looking forward to seeing Grosjean make it past lap 2. I think the guy has great potential.

[andrew]

They are definitely third best, unfortunately they also have a driver who has completed approximately 3 racing laps in 2012 after 2 races.

I'm looking forward to seeing Grosjean make it past lap 2. I think the guy has great potential.

I don't. Like to see raikonnen get a few wins though.