- 14 Aug 11, 20:07#270011
In 2009, Button's lead at this juncture in the season was such that if Vettel had won the eight final races, JB still could have held on to his WDC lead provided he averaged scoring 7.5 points per event for the same eight races (in a season where coming second paid 8 points).
This season, if Webber were to win the remaining eight races, Vettel will manage to hold on to his lead if he can average scoring 14.5 points per race (in a season when coming third pays 15 points).
But of course Vettel didn't win the final eight races of 2009, and it's highly unlikely Webber or any other one individual will win all eight remaining 2011 races. Which makes it all the likelier that Vettel's lead will endure.
Or does it?
So long as we're playing at statistics, RBR have had five DNFs in each of the two preceding seasons. Vettel had three in both 2010 and 2009 and Webber had two. And neither of them has had even a single DNF thus far this season. More to the point, both have been in the points in every race and Vettel only has finished off the podium on one occasion.
With only eight races remaining, it seems unlikely Vettel might maintain his pre-season average DNF rate but it seems even less likely that he would finish all 19 races. Unlikelier still that he should finish all 19 with a points-paying result.
No one's bucket of luck is bottomless, and even his has to run dry eventually. And just two pointless finishes would put an entirely new complexion on the season.
This season, if Webber were to win the remaining eight races, Vettel will manage to hold on to his lead if he can average scoring 14.5 points per race (in a season when coming third pays 15 points).
But of course Vettel didn't win the final eight races of 2009, and it's highly unlikely Webber or any other one individual will win all eight remaining 2011 races. Which makes it all the likelier that Vettel's lead will endure.
Or does it?
So long as we're playing at statistics, RBR have had five DNFs in each of the two preceding seasons. Vettel had three in both 2010 and 2009 and Webber had two. And neither of them has had even a single DNF thus far this season. More to the point, both have been in the points in every race and Vettel only has finished off the podium on one occasion.
With only eight races remaining, it seems unlikely Vettel might maintain his pre-season average DNF rate but it seems even less likely that he would finish all 19 races. Unlikelier still that he should finish all 19 with a points-paying result.
No one's bucket of luck is bottomless, and even his has to run dry eventually. And just two pointless finishes would put an entirely new complexion on the season.
"I'll bet ya a hundred and five thousand dollars you go to sleep before I do."
--Dobbsie
--Dobbsie