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[phonedog]

Fernando Alonso is throwing caution to the wind as he bids to overhaul runaway leader Sebastian Vettel in the race for the Formula 1 title.

Could Fernando Alonso chase Sebastian if he keeps this up ?

[killem2]

He made a similar claim last year around this time and came damn close. So who knows. Would be nice to see, and if he can do it, I am betting mclaren still can too.

[phonedog]

He made a similar claim last year around this time and came damn close. So who knows. Would be nice to see, and if he can do it, I am better mclaren still can too.

mclaren....are you serious.... they really need alot of worked done if they want to chase Vettel. But like you said who knows...

[killem2]

He made a similar claim last year around this time and came damn close. So who knows. Would be nice to see, and if he can do it, I am better mclaren still can too.

mclaren....are you serious.... they really need alot of worked done if they want to chase Vettel.

they arent that far behind mr ferrari. Remember there was quite a bit of lady luck at that race. vettel's bad pit stop, button losing a wheel. he was basically handed that race.

[phonedog]

He made a similar claim last year around this time and came damn close. So who knows. Would be nice to see, and if he can do it, I am better mclaren still can too.

mclaren....are you serious.... they really need alot of worked done if they want to chase Vettel.

they arent that far behind mr ferrari. Remember there was quite a bit of lady luck at that race. vettel's bad pit stop, button losing a wheel. he was basically handed that race.

hmmm....that could happen to anybody in any race. But ye i do agree what you said about vettel's pit stop and button's wheel.

[andrew]

As long as he doesn't get stuck behind Petrov he may have a chance.

Just PR talk this. Let the action on track do the talking. I think McLaren are still ahead of Ferrari and that their Silverstone win was thanks only to the EDB restriction.

[phonedog]

As long as he doesn't get stuck behind Petrov he may have a chance.

Just PR talk this. Let the action on track do the talking. I think McLaren are still ahead of Ferrari and that their Silverstone win was thanks only to the EDB restriction.

Ferrari can get past mclaren if Alonso and Massa keep there positions going like in British GP, or they probably even have a chance to overtake Red Bull in the constructors championship....

[myownalias]

If the Exhaust Blown Diffuser remained banned then I could see Alonso having an outside chance but being 90+ points behind with Red Bull still being dominant; it's highly unlikely!!!

[phonedog]

If the Exhaust Blown Diffuser remained banned then I could see Alonso having an outside chance but being 90+ points behind with Red Bull still being dominant; it's highly unlikely!!!

ok your right , then he'll have to keep being in the top 3 or something..

[spankyham]

I have a suspicion there has been a quantum change in the relative performances of the cars and its not related to the EBD/overrun thing. I said at the start of the year that, IMO, the RB is not suited to in season development, I still think that's so. They haven't fixed their KERS and I don't see any significant changes to their car.

Ferrari and McLaren have been improving steadily. Performance outside of EBD/overrun changes will be revealed in Germany. I would not be surprised to see a Red Bull-less podium.

Having said all that, it is extremely doubtful that anyone can overcome the points deficit to Vettel, if they did it would be the most epic performance by a team/driver in recent history.

Personally I think we are in for some great races because all 4 Ferrari and McLaren cars can race purely for the day, they don't really have to care or worry about the season - simply enjoy the day and the race they are at. I'm looking forward to each race, and, who knows, if when they leave Europe the Championships have changed, then teams and drivers could start to think beyond the next race.

[What's Burning?]

I have a suspicion there has been a quantum change in the relative performances of the cars and its not related to the EBD/overrun thing. I said at the start of the year that, IMO, the RB is not suited to in season development, I still think that's so. They haven't fixed their KERS and I don't see any significant changes to their car.

Ferrari and McLaren have been improving steadily. Performance outside of EBD/overrun changes will be revealed in Germany. I would not be surprised to see a Red Bull-less podium.

Having said all that, it is extremely doubtful that anyone can overcome the points deficit to Vettel, if they did it would be the most epic performance by a team/driver in recent history.

Personally I think we are in for some great races because all 4 Ferrari and McLaren cars can race purely for the day, they don't really have to care or worry about the season - simply enjoy the day and the race they are at. I'm looking forward to each race, and, who knows, if when they leave Europe the Championships have changed, then teams and drivers could start to think beyond the next race.

I'll drink to that. But please let's not have as tumultuous Germany as we had last year. The next McLaren race I'm hopeful for though is Spa.

[bud]

Alonso can keep winning but Sebs never been lesser than 2nd. Not enough races to bridge the gap in that scenario

[Hammer278]

Alonso won't win again, Ferrari were handed Silverstone by the FIAt group and Redbulls mechanic.

Now that things are back as they should be, it will be Vettel winning easily again with Hamilton appearing here and there on the top of the podium. And the WDC will be over by the 4th last race.

[GRHinPorts]

To give an idea of how difficult it would be for Fernando to chase down Seb it would require something like the following scenario:

10 races remaining Alonso wins 7 of them and finishes 2nd in other 3 giving him 229 more points to go with his current 112 or a finish of 341.

10 races remaining Vettel wins just 3 of them and finishes 2nd in 2 others, DNFs in 3 (Note: RedBull are yet to have any in 18 starts so far), and has two 4ths in the other 2 races giving him 135 more points to go with his current 204 or a finish of 339.

So it would require a huge increase in consistent speed from Ferrari, coupled with a significant loss of speed from Vettel and some notable lack of reliability from the Red Bull.

The equation is even harder for the McLaren drivers because with them both on 109 apiece you can see scenarios where even with a fast McLaren they could well conspire to take points off each other - although a fast McLaren leading to a series of 1-2s would ensure more point could be taken off Seb.

Mark Webber clearly to me has the best (of a bad lot) chance of chasing down Vettel but even he might need a scenario whereby:

10 races remaining Webber wins 6 of them and finishes 2nd in other 4 meaning an extra 222 points to go with his current 124 or a finish of 346.

With Vettel having the same scenario I painted above finishing him on 339. But thats requiring all of any potential Red Bull unreliability (or bad luck/mistakes) to only strike at Seb's side of the garage. Plus its hard to imagine Webber consistently winning races without the Red Bull remaining consistently quick and Vettel scoring heavily enough as well in the process.

By far the more likeliest scenario is that in about 5 races time (i.e by the conclusion of Singapore) Vettel will have racked up enough 1st and 2nd places to make any other WDC in 2011 impossible.

[darwin dali]

As I predicted elsewhere, this could happen in Monza already. SV needs a gap of 150 points to mathematically sew up the title by then - he's got 80+ now. It's unlikely, but possible.