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[Hammer278]

So I presume you've been watching since 2009?

Because Ferrari has done it around 7 years in a row (1999-2006), McLarens done it twice (2007-2008).

Redbull has kept it ahead from the 2nd half of last year and the whole of this year. Concluding you're pretty new to F1 then?

[Big Azza]

OK - my observation is incorrect then.

[bud]

That's due to the regs changing Azza. 2007-2008 were pretty stable so both Ferrari and McLaren were upfront both years. 2009-2010 are relatively stable aero wise. Though even then tyres and fuel regs changed so it's obviously hurt Brawn/Mercedes more than Redbull. Or maybe it was just down to not having much cash for development in 2009.

[Robert12010]

Red Bull proved they were the better team. Consider this - In 2009 Ferrari and McLaren dropped to the back because of the rule changes. Red Bull and Honda/Brawn came from the back to end up with fantastic championship-winning cars. In 2010 Honda/Brawn/Mercedes drop back to the middle of the field, Ferrari and McLaren come back to the front but Red Bull is still there.

Next year we will probably see Ferrari drop back again, McLaren still struggling, and Mercedes come back to the front row to battle with Red Bull. We'll probably see a third contender that will provide a big shock to us, like one of the new teams, or Force India or someone like that coming right to the fore splitting the Red Bulls and battling with Vettel for WDC.

Vettel has been up front 2 years in a row, while Webber is just having the season of his life. Expect Vettel to be up front again next year, and leading most races from pole, bar the odd mechanical issue. Webber, if he stays, will only get a couple of wins, but mostly will be battling for third in the championship.

id be surprised if mclaren and ferrari drop back, i think they will still be up there with red bull but mercedes i think will be quicker over the season

[Gaz]

Red Bull proved they were the better team. Consider this - In 2009 Ferrari and McLaren dropped to the back because of the rule changes. Red Bull and Honda/Brawn came from the back to end up with fantastic championship-winning cars. In 2010 Honda/Brawn/Mercedes drop back to the middle of the field, Ferrari and McLaren come back to the front but Red Bull is still there.

Next year we will probably see Ferrari drop back again, McLaren still struggling, and Mercedes come back to the front row to battle with Red Bull. We'll probably see a third contender that will provide a big shock to us, like one of the new teams, or Force India or someone like that coming right to the fore splitting the Red Bulls and battling with Vettel for WDC.

Vettel has been up front 2 years in a row, while Webber is just having the season of his life. Expect Vettel to be up front again next year, and leading most races from pole, bar the odd mechanical issue. Webber, if he stays, will only get a couple of wins, but mostly will be battling for third in the championship.

You've based that opinion on what?

Don't forget Mclaren and Ferrari ran Kers thought 2009 and Mclaren's KERS was the best.

Based upon this i'd expect Mclaren and Mercades to have a big advantage in 2011 as Red bull has never run KERS.

Why Mercedes? Brawn didn't use KERS in 2009, too. Was it developed by Mercedes when McLaren used it in 2009? Are they going to share the system?

the 2009 Mclaren KERS was joint developed by Mclaren and Mercades.

They will be building separate systems for 2011 but i assume they both have the data gained from the 2009 success.

[Fred_C_Dobbs]

...Ever noticed that since Alonso's 2 world championships it's always looked unlikely for the reigning World Champion to defend his title? Each year the reigning World Champion seems to drop back to midfield. Red Bull are the only team to have stayed at the front for more than one year in a row since I've been watching.

So you think there's been some manner of sea change in F1 since MSC won WDC five consecutive seasons?

You're making far too much of what were an unrelated series of coincidences. First, that is too brief a historical period to take any significant conclusions from it. Second, look at the circumstances.

After 2006, Alonso changed teams, a move fair guaranteed to scuttle a driver's chances for a successful defense of the WDC.

Räikkönen won the 2007 WDC and then retired. Choosing not to compete has proved to be 100% fatal to one's chances for defending the WDC.

LH won WDC in 2008 but could not repeat owing to the freak season of 2009.

The FIA changed tyre specs too close to the start of the 2009 season for Bridgestone to fully respond so the rear tyres were too narrow to achieve balance against the fronts. The very definition of serendipity, Brawn were the only team truly able to cope with the FIA's cock-up by virtue of the Toyota-developed shadow diffuser. Their advantage (in the dry) was so unassailable, it was a certainty that the WDC would fall to Brawn. Yes, Vettel came second in WDC but only because Brawn came 1-2 three times in the early season, with Barrichello always coming second. If Button had faltered, Barrichello, not Vettel, would have claimed WDC.

And for 2010, the WDC has once again changed teams.

Since JB is mathematically eliminated from repeating as WDC, in the four seasons since Alonso last won WDC, the World Champion has changed teams twice, retired once and, in the fourth instance, was selected by the double diffuser lottery. I see no pattern at all.

What I do see is that RBR scored 29 WCC points in 2008, 143 points out of the chase. In 2007, they scored 24 WCC points, 180 points behind first. This hardly qualifies as "staying at the front."

[Robert12010]

...Ever noticed that since Alonso's 2 world championships it's always looked unlikely for the reigning World Champion to defend his title? Each year the reigning World Champion seems to drop back to midfield. Red Bull are the only team to have stayed at the front for more than one year in a row since I've been watching.

So you think there's been some manner of sea change in F1 since MSC won WDC five consecutive seasons?

You're making far too much of what were an unrelated series of coincidences. First, that is too brief a historical period to take any significant conclusions from it. Second, look at the circumstances.

After 2006, Alonso changed teams, a move fair guaranteed to scuttle a driver's chances for a successful defense of the WDC.

Räikkönen won the 2007 WDC and then retired. Choosing not to compete has proved to be 100% fatal to one's chances for defending the WDC.

LH won WDC in 2008 but could not repeat owing to the freak season of 2009.

The FIA changed tyre specs too close to the start of the 2009 season for Bridgestone to fully respond so the rear tyres were too narrow to achieve balance against the fronts. The very definition of serendipity, Brawn were the only team truly able to cope with the FIA's cock-up by virtue of the Toyota-developed shadow diffuser. Their advantage (in the dry) was so unassailable, it was a certainty that the WDC would fall to Brawn. Yes, Vettel came second in WDC but only because Brawn came 1-2 three times in the early season, with Barrichello always coming second. If Button had faltered, Barrichello, not Vettel, would have claimed WDC.

And for 2010, the WDC has once again changed teams.

Since JB is mathematically eliminated from repeating as WDC, in the four seasons since Alonso last won WDC, the World Champion has changed teams twice, retired once and, in the fourth instance, was selected by the double diffuser lottery. I see no pattern at all.

What I do see is that RBR scored 29 WCC points in 2008, 143 points out of the chase. In 2007, they scored 24 WCC points, 180 points behind first. This hardly qualifies as "staying at the front."

agreed with that, the regulations have helped red bull and thats from adrian newey himself