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[What's Burning?]

There are so many variables when we talk about next season but I suspect that next year will have a much greater level of car development than 2012 since the new regulations in 2013 will essentially be a clean slate for all and will demand huge development resources.

So any new contention may be quite short lived.

[MattMK45]

Well if this season is anything to go by then 2011 is going to be an absolute cracker!

Concerning Force India, they have lost momentum as soon as the second half of the season was underway, however whenever Williams get too close, they seem to create a good margin by pulling a good result out of the bag e.g. Liuzzi in Korea. In pace terms they are really getting the most performance out of their engines and it is a better power-plant than the cosworth in the Williams. In my opinion, Williams have a better qualifying pace, however aren't able to maximise their position because they are infront of the front runners and can't keep up.

Force India have a better race pace and those Mercedes engines really help them on the straights. If they are to be more prominent next year they need to maintain 6th place in the WCC so they will get a bigger budget. Williams need budget more so because they are a private team and what with RBS pulling out at the end of the year, they need all the money they can get to improve and join the front runners once more. Whether Williams can catch and pass them we will see but that's a battle you should watch as well as the obvious.

[MattMK45]

Another aspect to look at will be which teams maximises the pirelli tires to their car.

This is where Ross Brawn expects the Mercedes car and Schumacher to be faster.

[CarBore]

I'm not 100% but as I understand it the main changes for 2011 are:

1) no Double diffuser
2) no f-duct
3) adjustable rear wing
4) lifting of team agreement against KERS
5) new tires


3) has been agreed to be disallow by teams(???)
5) will be the principle decider as these are a huge part of how a car handles

Here is my speculation:

1) Loss of the double diffuser affects those with the strongest DD the most, here I'm presuming Red Bull as less downforce from the diffuser reduces the relative advantage of their more developed EBD, one could argue that it might be relative since their car appears to have fundamentally more downforce from its overall shape

2) No F-duct affect McLaren the most, but again they were are still expected to have the best top speed based on unchanging car aspects

3) not being used so ignored

4) KERS

I see this one 2 ways, last year McLaren had the best KERS but... surely the ~80 hp the KERS gets you is more valuable in evening out on the engines with relatively less power ie Renault

I guess in a round about way I'm saying with all the rules changes we can't really tell who is going to be on top until Bahrain

[stonemonkey]

First impressions of the new rubber for next season is that it is far superior to Bridgestone's.
Look for two new extremely fast cars from Ferrari and McLaren.
Red Bull will be a distant 3rd and battle most likely with Renault.

I don't see why you'd think RB would drop off in terms of pace. The aero rules aren't changing hugely. Yes they lose the double diffuser but so does everyone else.

If you've got something that's good it harder to improve on that, I wouldn't say they will drop off but the others have more room for improvement, the new tyres could throw anyone off though.

[Four mules as one]

I think as long as Adrian Newey is fully supported, Red Bull will be a front runner, if not the front runner. Look at his history, he is the dominant designer of these cars over the last 2 decades. It doesn't matter what driver they put in, those cars will be fast. I suspect this year is a bit like 92 with his Williams car, a very dominant design, and then came the 93, 94, 95, 96, 97 cars. I know they weren't all championship winning cars due to driver circumstances but they were always very fast and up the front. Actually add to that when he left Williams and went to McLaren 98, 99, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003. Then a brief unloved exiting phase from McLaren and hello again with his rebuilding of Red Bull and resurgence to the top in 2009, 2010. I would put Red Bull on the front row of most of next years grid if I was a betting man, this guy has dominated Formula One more so than any other person since 1991. Unfortunately he just sometimes hasn't had the drivers that can give him the prize he deserves. Hopefully Mark gets off his cautious arse and goes for the win in those final two races and gives it to him.