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[darwin dali]

Im thinking it will end up being a Redbull driver that wins it. Hopefully Webber but i think McLaren will be the ones challenging. Im not sure you can base Ferrari's form on Monza alone though, McLaren were strong in Spa and Monza so I would be liking their position more than Ferrari's in terms of the upcoming tracks suiting who. Another thing that is going against Ferrari is that Fernando has to race with one engine in the next 5 races. Thats going to be tough.

On the up side Fernando doesnt have to worry about his team mate compared to Redbull and McLaren drivers.

Not so sure that this is actually true - they may have some old engines left that they can use for some of the race tracks that are not that demanding.

[spankyham]

Im thinking it will end up being a Redbull driver that wins it. Hopefully Webber but i think McLaren will be the ones challenging. Im not sure you can base Ferrari's form on Monza alone though, McLaren were strong in Spa and Monza so I would be liking their position more than Ferrari's in terms of the upcoming tracks suiting who. Another thing that is going against Ferrari is that Fernando has to race with one engine in the next 5 races. Thats going to be tough.

On the up side Fernando doesnt have to worry about his team mate compared to Redbull and McLaren drivers.

Not so sure that this is actually true - they may have some old engines left that they can use for some of the race tracks that are not that demanding.

Fernando has 4 engines to choose from over the next 5 races (assuming they don't want to use any engine more than 3 times). Realistically he will probably use them as follows:-
Engine 6 (used twice) he will use once more
Engine 7 (used once) he will use twice more
Engine 8 (used once) he will use twice more
Engine 1 could be used at the last race, but I don't think it would be chosen as this was the one that was changed before the start of Bahrain because it showed signs of overheating.
The optimum use for an engine appears to be 3. However both Ferrari and Mercedes engines have been used for 4 races. In the Ferrari engine case by both the Torro Rosso drivers and in the Mercedes engines case by both the Force India cars.
None of the Ferrari, McLaren or Red Bull drivers have used an engine more than 3 times and none look like it will be necessary.

[thechainrule]

I would love to see LH win again.
It guts me everytime i watch him DNF. He's been a lot smarter and disciplined this seasons sans Monza/Aussie. IMO if all the cars were created equal he would be fastest of the drivers. McLaren is also a smart team, especially when it comes to strategy. If Lewis can work his magic in Singapore, Korea and Brazil and get the most out of the MP4-25 things should be looking up.

If not Lewis I think Webber is the next bext for the title. Hes got the right car and the right mindset. As well as the lead and the most virgin engines.

[spankyham]

Points (current system) over the past 4 races for the 3 teams still with realistic chances

WCC (out of a possible 172)
Ferrari 125 (1 DNF)
RBR 101 (1 DNF)
McLaren 69 (3 DNF)

WDC (out of a possible 100)
FA 68 (1 DNF)
MW 58 (0 DNF)
FM 57 (0 DNF)
SV 42 (1 DNF)
LH 37 (2 DNF)
JB 32 (1 DNF)

[Bubbie]

Good breakdown Spankey... Really puts into focus just how strong Ferrari have become in the second half of the season.

[FRAFPDD]

Its just a agenda filing system designed to reignite hope in Spanky that Alonso somehow has the best chance.

[spankyham]

Its just a agenda filing system designed to reignite hope in Spanky that Alonso somehow has the best chance.

Gee, I would have thought it made Mark a firmer favourite.

Mathematically in 4 races Fernando has caught up an average of 2.5 points a race on the leader MW. There are 5 races to go. Based on these figures, the most optimistic extrapolation is that Fernando will catch Mark by an additional 12.5 points. Which makes MW the most likely WDC.

I could live with that.

On the more important side, the same extrapolation gives hope that Ferrari could win the WCC

[Hammer278]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

[vaptin]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

Well, won't the WDC and WCC 2010 table be a stat?

Heh, I remember doing something along the lines of what your planning for the pre season testing and predictions people were having based on that.

[spankyham]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

Perhaps I'll keep these posts to myself and just tell everyone the results of a few coin tosses

[Hammer278]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

Well, won't the WDC and WCC 2010 table be a stat?

Heh, I remember doing something along the lines of what your planning for the pre season testing and predictions people were having based on that.

That's a good point. Some stats matter, but not all. Most stats are simply twisted to favour an argument. Some are solid, like the end of a WDC/WCC table. Stats that remain and are reviewed, many years down the road.

[Hammer278]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

Perhaps I'll keep these posts to myself and just tell everyone the results of a few coin tosses

Whatever floats your boat...err, ham.

[vaptin]

Stats mean nothing. The bullsh*t stops when the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi.

Hope all the forumers busy extrapolating and presentings stats would stick around, it will be fun to look back at these threads.

Well, won't the WDC and WCC 2010 table be a stat?

Heh, I remember doing something along the lines of what your planning for the pre season testing and predictions people were having based on that.

That's a good point. Some stats matter, but not all. Most stats are simply twisted to favour an argument. Some are solid, like the end of a WDC/WCC table. Stats that remain and are reviewed, many years down the road.

Yes, trying to use the last couple of races stats to extrapolate for the rest of the season, in the fast changing development world and considering how circuits themselves affect performance, may not be a massively useful or meaningful stat in terms of predicting the final rankings, but I think it has some value.

[Rivers]

Not a lot of JB fans out there who believe in him gettign the title.

MW has currently the best chance to win the champ but its not over until the end of the last race. The situation in 5 races can change, and the champ leader could change again pretty quickly. You just need to do a Lewis to loose some 15 or so points in a single race, so a lot of stuff can still happen. And some stupid mistake could pretty much seal the deal for someone...

[FRAFPDD]

Its just a agenda filing system designed to reignite hope in Spanky that Alonso somehow has the best chance.

Gee, I would have thought it made Mark a firmer favourite.

Mathematically in 4 races Fernando has caught up an average of 2.5 points a race on the leader MW. There are 5 races to go. Based on these figures, the most optimistic extrapolation is that Fernando will catch Mark by an additional 12.5 points. Which makes MW the most likely WDC.

I could live with that.

On the more important side, the same extrapolation gives hope that Ferrari could win the WCC

4 races is not a standard, you picked 4 so that the stats for Alonso complimented him, ok, monza has just gone and i make a post on the previous ONE race, the stats show the Hamilton should crash out in every remaining race and come 6th in the WDC. Dont try using big words to justify it, what youve done is fulfill and agenda, some dudes a;lready posted it but stats like that mean nothing, general trend throughout the season mean something. If your going to post things like this at least try a bit harder to cover up the motive