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[f1ea]

Thats an awful long post to say you think Fernando will win.

We can't say that spankyham isn't thorough and considered in his posts can we?

PS: I didn't quote the whole of spankyham's reply because it causes my mouse scroll-wheel to get tired!

[Flux]

don't think its safe bet on anyone. while alonso may be strong hes been so far off form and position this year while i think hes a good racer it baffles me how close he is, Hamilton isn't doing badly but question is will McLaren keep the pace, webber has been the most consistent and very fast and we all know how fast the bulls are.

but speculation is speculation, a better picture will happen when teams bring there upgrades to Singapore

[f1ea]

My numers are there.... but i'm going to wait until after Abu dhabi to make my predictions.

[Peng]

So where does that leave us.
Lewis and Mark get a tick for the points lead
RBR get the tick for the car (but only just, for me this was a close category)
Ferrari get a tick on the team front
Ferrari gets a tick for strategy
Fernando and Jenson get the final ticks for drivers (also very very close)

Ferrari get a tick for strategy? seriously? none of the top 3 have really been great this season but Ferrari haven't been the best.

I wouldn't say any team has been good enough to get a tick the only driver who should get a tick is Button because his tactical choices have won him 2 races.

I think that puts Webber, Alonso and Button all on 2 points according to your ranking table.

Personally i think this is still Webber's championship to lose.

I don't think the Mclarens will have the pace to keep up on the high downforce tracks especially in qualifying.
Alonso probably has the best chance of winning it now as he has the experience and Ferrari seem to be much closer to RBR in terms of pace on different types of circuit.
But the fact is if nothing has been changed due to regulations none of the other cars will be able to compete with the sheer pace of the RB6 and if Webber can actually stop being his usual inconsistent self he has by far the best chance of winning this season.

Fact is though anything can happen in 5 races and with 1 1st place win being the difference between the top 5 i personally wouldn't advise betting on the champion.

Edit : Just wanted to add something to this post.

Lastly we need to look at the drivers. Well all 5 are very good. 3 are already champions. At the risk of the howls (again) of being called a Lewis basher, I still think he and Seb also, push too hard and make too many mistakes. Mark has maturity and knows if he doessn't do it this year, he probably will never be WDC. Fernando knows exactly what needs to be done and is cool and calm. Look at how he handled the abusive media conferences immediately after Germany - there was a massive amount of pressure on him and the team, but he took it in his stride, used it to galvanize the team and actually turned it into a positive for Ferrari. Jenson too is very calculating and cool and calm - essential qualities, I just think that, unfortunately, he just isn't quite there in terms of speed on the track - he may be only 1 or 2 percent down, but it is visible. Lewis has now beaten him 9 to 5 in qualifying and 9 to 5 in races.

I wouldn't call Alonso cool and calm he probably has the worst case of red mist than anyone on the grid, he has lost several chances to gain decent points because instead of calming down and getting on with the race he just sulks and drives badly, a good example was Valencia where he got so angry over what Hamilton did he started driving terribly and even got overtaken by a sauber a few laps from the end of the race.
He is fine when he is winning so yes he would be amazingly calm after stealing a win like he did in Germany since he must have thought he won the lottery but when he is behind he whines and moans like a 5 year old until he gets his way.

He has never been a team player however he must be ecstatic with the fact he is now in a team that will do anything for him and team mate who folds easily when told.

[Fred_C_Dobbs]

SkyBet have it Webber (13/8), Hamilton (5/2), Alonso (7/2), Vettel (4/1), and Button (14/1).

[racechick]

SkyBet have it Webber (13/8), Hamilton (5/2), Alonso (7/2), Vettel (4/1), and Button (14/1).

If i listened to my head Id probably have it in that order as of toady! (though im ify about switching Vettel and button-I dont think vettels ready for a 'down to the wire fight') But after the next race it could all change. But im not listening to my head. Lewis will do this!!

[FRAFPDD]

LOL at the Alonso fans breaking into massive forumulas to end up with a final result that is, Alonso most likely,

Nothing like good old fashioned subjectivity huh guys?

Personally i think its Webbers done and dusted, we dont know just how good Ferrari are at "conventional tracks" Mclaren have "huge" updates for Singapoe, Red Bull lead both championships and the final tracks suit them most.

Lewis CANT do any better then he is doing(minus the monza mistake), but its still not enough, Alonso may overtake Lewis in grid positionfor the remaining races but its still gonna be behind guess who, Button better hope for torrential rain in abu dhabi........and Vettel likes to recreate scaletrix races.

[f1ea]

LOL at the Alonso fans breaking into massive forumulas to end up with a final result that is, Alonso most likely,

Nothing like good old fashioned subjectivity huh guys?

Personally i think its Webbers done and dusted, we dont know just how good Ferrari are at "conventional tracks" Mclaren have "huge" updates for Singapoe, Red Bull lead both championships and the final tracks suit them most.

Lewis CANT do any better then he is doing(minus the monza mistake), but its still not enough, Alonso may overtake Lewis in grid positionfor the remaining races but its still gonna be behind guess who, Button better hope for torrential rain in abu dhabi........and Vettel likes to recreate scaletrix races.

Despite having the numbers to prove the contrary i actually agree with you... Webber looks set to do it.

[MattMK45]

It is still too hard to pick a clear winner and I have no doubt that at least 3 drivers will travel to Abu Dhabi having a shot at the championship. The top 5 drivers are separated by 25 points which of course is one win! It could be settled on a lot of factors, the team's ability to perform, the driver's ability, weather conditions, motivations, engine count. Every race will be crucial from now on. This is where they would of wished they hadn't crashed out in whatever race or had mechanical failures.

Will we see the teams favouring other drivers which they have so far dismissed but that could all change of course. It is just too close to call!

Here are my predictions:
Constructors:
1. Red Bull
2. McLaren
3. Ferrari
4. Mercedes GP
5. Renault
6. Williams
7. Force India
8. BMW Sauber
9. Toro Rosso
10. Lotus
11. Virgin
12. Hispania

Drivers:

Are you kidding! I still wouldn't of made up my mind by the time we get to Brazil!!! It's going to be a special end to the season guys!

[smokin]

Before Monza, I had Hamilton and Webber duking it out for the big prize in the last race - but I had Hamilton down for the win in Monza. I also had no wins for Alonso for the rest of the season. Hamilton now has a steep hill to climb, Alonso has shown that he can still perform at the highest level (and Ferrari has found some real pace), Vettel has shown that he can think coolly and calmly and Button is just Mr Smooth.

I still pick Webber to do it but I have no idea who will be his main challenger.

And that only adds to the anticipation.

(Think I'll splash out on a little flutter on Mr Webber. Maybe not - I've probably got more chance of winning the lottery than picking this year's winner...)

[smokin]

For me, there are 5 factors, that will determine the current WDC will be the current points, car, team, strategies and drivers. The winner will have the best combination of these over the next 5 races. The current points is a known factor so not much to be said there. other than Mark and Lewis have significant advantages over Fernando, Jenson and Seb.

Next we need to compare the cars. The RB is the best package for an overall fast lap, this is mostly due to aerodynamic grip. But, the car has proven itself slightly brittle, particularly brakes and, the Renault engine is a little down on power compared to the others. The McLaren, for me is actually the fastest car, but lets itself down on the aero side. What's more, the rear suspension configuration has really meant the blown diffuser was never going to work properly and deliver anything like it does for the other teams. As far as the car goes, Ferrari started the season in 3rd place really. Overall it was a huge step forward on the F60, and it was competitive, but, just not quite there. At the start of the year, the F10's trump was how kind it was to its tyres. But its trump was its enemy in qualifying, Fernando and Felipe just couldn't get enough heat into the tyres in 2 or 3 laps to put out their best times. However, over the season, the Ferrari team has probably produced the best upgrades - overall. Their gaps between the 3 cars are way less now. Don't believe the talk that McLaren will suddenly drop off for the remaining races, sure, they won't have the perfect tracks for their car (although I do think Korea will suit the McLaren) but the MP4-25 will be right up there.

In the "team" department I think there is a clear leader, and it isn't based on how friendly and buddy-buddy people appear in the media - unfortunately, that won't win races. The leader is clearly Ferrari, what's more, most of their advantage has been handed to them by the British press and the Team Orders fiasco. Ferrari have established, a team ethos and it will operate for the rest of the year. McLaren on the other hand, are stuck with actually having to live up to their media - a real albatross for them. RB are in the same position as McLaren, but probably to a lesser degree as Horner has seen this coming and has tried to just keep quiet and let McLaren build this rod for thier own backs. Publicly and internally Ferrari have the advantage of feeling they are like a "team" with "team mates" who, just like soccer players, can pass the ball to each other depending on who is in the best position to win. McLaren, and to a lesser degree RBR just can't do that now, they have to go solo - lone dogs, and, they know if they do try any team orders their will be howls of hypocrisy against them.

Leads us to strategies - RBR, to me, have proven themselves lacking in this department over the year. If they had performed reasonably in this department, they would have already wrapped up both titles. Ferrari have had some hits and misses, but they have acted as a team. McLaren have had some excellent strategies, but, they haven't been team based - they have come from Jenson. His side of the garage's tyre choice and pit stops won him two races and his call on the F-Duct at Monza is another example of what I mean.

Lastly we need to look at the drivers. Well all 5 are very good. 3 are already champions. At the risk of the howls (again) of being called a Lewis basher, I still think he and Seb also, push too hard and make too many mistakes. Mark has maturity and knows if he doessn't do it this year, he probably will never be WDC. Fernando knows exactly what needs to be done and is cool and calm. Look at how he handled the abusive media conferences immediately after Germany - there was a massive amount of pressure on him and the team, but he took it in his stride, used it to galvanize the team and actually turned it into a positive for Ferrari. Jenson too is very calculating and cool and calm - essential qualities, I just think that, unfortunately, he just isn't quite there in terms of speed on the track - he may be only 1 or 2 percent down, but it is visible. Lewis has now beaten him 9 to 5 in qualifying and 9 to 5 in races.

So where does that leave us.
Lewis and Mark get a tick for the points lead
RBR get the tick for the car (but only just, for me this was a close category)
Ferrari get a tick on the team front
Ferrari gets a tick for strategy
Fernando and Jenson get the final ticks for drivers (also very very close)

The final yields:-
Mark 2 ticks
Lewis 1 tick
Fernando 3 ticks
Jenson 1 tick
Seb 1 tick

Leaves me with
1st Fernando
2nd Mark
3rd Lewis *
4th Jenson *
5th Seb *
* Same number of ticks so current points decides.

Excellent, intelligent, well thought out and presented post, spanky (and nice paragraphs, too! ). I had you down as a rabid anti-Hamilton blowhard from your posts of a few days ago. Testing the water, were we?

Not sure about the ticks but can't fault the logic. I'd put Webber above Alonso but maybe that's just my bias!

[spankyham]

spanky (and nice paragraphs, too! ). I had you down as a rabid anti-Hamilton blowhard from your posts of a few days ago. Testing the water, were we?

Not sure about the ticks but can't fault the logic. I'd put Webber above Alonso but maybe that's just my bias!

I pretty much only get rabid when I'm out bar-hopping around here

I just call it as I see it, but I do try and give my reasons and sources. I guess Lewis was in the spotlight, and I won't sugar-coat an opinion, but I can understand how some Lewis fans don't like to read negative things about him and perhaps they lash out or misinterpret what I have to say.

[Four mules as one]

Judging on Mark's ability to pass other cars at Monza, I'd have to put him as the favourite to win. He was woeful at the start by being way too cautious in the first corner but when he gets angry and attacks he is the best driver out there by far. Brilliant overtakng moves that were reminisent of Schumacher/Mansell's glory days. Go you good Aussie thing!!!!

[bud]

Im thinking it will end up being a Redbull driver that wins it. Hopefully Webber but i think McLaren will be the ones challenging. Im not sure you can base Ferrari's form on Monza alone though, McLaren were strong in Spa and Monza so I would be liking their position more than Ferrari's in terms of the upcoming tracks suiting who. Another thing that is going against Ferrari is that Fernando has to race with one engine in the next 5 races. Thats going to be tough.

On the up side Fernando doesnt have to worry about his team mate compared to Redbull and McLaren drivers.

[KyrosV]

The Alonso bid as the underdog is going to be the best viewing if he can pull it off. It will be a great race in Abu Dhabi if all 5 are still in it with a couple of points between them.