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[spankyham]

Law of probability does catch up with everyone.

.
.
.
But if you look at the season as a whole, before it began, the odds are different. Think about a tree diagram and then you'll understand:


The chances of the ball being red are 1/3 in three for the first pick and, similarly, 1/3 for the second pick. However, if you look at the two picks as a whole - the chances are 1/9 that you will get two reds in a row.

I hope you understand now.

So we're in agreement
This statistics stuff is thirsty work, time for us to share a

[spankyham]

My head hurts!!
But if lewis doesnt win Massa would be an ACE champion

Be still my all-red heart, do I feel a conversion coming?

Your strength will flow from the F10-Force. But beware of the dark-red side. Speed, down-force, aggression; the dark-red side of the F10-Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you are they. If once you start down the dark-red path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will

[What's Burning?]

Huh... how did the conversation turn to communism?

[spankyham]

Huh... how did the conversation turn to communism?

Do you mean there's more than one red?

[vaptin]

I think if you look at what statistician Persi Diaconis says you will notice that Alonso will win.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=1697475

Flipping a coin may not be the fairest way to settle disputes. About a decade ago, statistician Persi Diaconis started to wonder if the outcome of a coin flip really is just a matter of chance. He had Harvard University engineers build him a mechanical coin flipper. Diaconis, now at Stanford University, found that if a coin is launched exactly the same way, it lands exactly the same way.

The randomness in a coin toss, it appears, is introduced by sloppy humans. Each human-generated flip has a different height and speed, and is caught at a different angle, giving different outcomes.

But using high speed cameras and equations, Diaconis and colleagues have now found that even though humans are largely unpredictable coin flippers, there's still a bias built in: If a coin starts out heads, it ends up heads when caught more often than it does tails. NPR's David Kestenbaum reports.

*Note: In football's inaugural kickoff coin toss, the coin is not caught but allowed to bounce on the ground. That introduces an extra complication, one mathematicians have yet to sort out.

Will sound like an arrogant pig here (only read the part you've quoted) but that's obvious surely? Flip a coin the exact same way every time (in a controlled environment, not that air is usually enough to have a significant effect) and you'll get the same result every time. Humans can't do that (kinda why computers can beat people at chess).

[Jabberwocky]

But using high speed cameras and equations, Diaconis and colleagues have now found that even though humans are largely unpredictable coin flippers, there's still a bias built in: If a coin starts out heads, it ends up heads when caught more often than it does tails. NPR's David Kestenbaum reports.

[elfinitty]

It would be like a miracle if this happened!But still,thats a really good speculation.Some of them stand real facts of today-like team orders-,but others-Lewis's collide with Vettel or Alonso's engine blow-out - are all about your own speculation.Though i think you considered some other facts.What are they?
Nice thread,and it was fun to read this when you imagine all these happens.Especially Lewis's hug to Massa

[Hammer278]

Why not? Better than Alonso being WDC 2010 anyway.

[Hexagram]

Why not? Better than Hamilton being WDC 2010 anyway.

Fixed.

[elfinitty]

Why not? Better than Alonso being WDC 2010 anyway.

I think it would be much better,too but how many percent would you give for all this to happen?

[spankyham]

Why not? Better than Hammer278 being WDC 2010 anyway.

Really Fixed.

[Hexagram]

Why not? Better than Hammer278 being WDC 2010 anyway.

Really Fixed.

[davidmemb]

Webber has had only 2 DNFs all year....but your fictional fantasy suggests he will double that!

You have far too much time on your hands mate. It's between Webber, Alonso and Hamilton......period.

Championship between Webber and Alonso now. Hamilton has five place grid drop for Japan. He's gone. I don't think Button is hungry enough for the championship now. My two cents worth.

[scotty]

So about this thread then....

[smokin]

So about this thread then....

It's unravelling...