The way things are going this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Grosjean or Perez win in Valencia with one of their one stop strategies; if McLaren decided to one stop Hamilton, Grosjean would have won in Canada. Although I would tip Alonso to win in the Spanish GP part II, it seems his home crowd gives him an extra 1-2 tenths of a second per lap!
Grosjean one stopped remember, there's nothing to say Lewis's tyre deg and subsequent pace would be the same as Sebs/Ferns or same as Grosjeans.
Lewis made his tyres last in the Spanish GP when he started from the back...so he does have the potential to pull a stunt like Gros and Perez. On the other hand , yesteday just before his second stop he looked to be slowing slightly in comparison to Alonso and vettel, he also said his tyres were stating to go. But maybe he hadnt been driving it the way he would for a one stopper, he'd always intended to do two yesterday.
I think the problem with Alonso and Vettel's one-stop strategy ended up being that they were pushing each other so hard at the front, that they 'wrecked' their tires. Then they were given the choice to try and make them last (Alonso), or take your loss and pit for new super softs (Vettel). But as Vettel said, it was just damage control at that point.
Considering Red Bull's pace in Monaco (before the wrong-setup-saga), and the fact Vettel's trying for his hattrick in Valencia, I'd say he would be favorite for the win, with Alonso's home boost second. If there is going to be an 8th winner, again judging by Monaco, I'm calling either Schumeister or one of the Lotus'.
