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[Fodda]

Of course you're right, wins are (and should be) very hard to achieve easily. But the current Ferrari IS fast enough to win. Maybe not the fastest of this year, but it's up there. Like the McLaren it needs a bit of luck and a damn good qualy session. Monza SHOULD be good for Ferrari, but will probably be a RBR cakewalk unless McLaren come up with the goods. Luck again.

I'm not a Fezza fan by any stretch, and love seeing them in trouble, but I love F1 racing more than anything else and won't discount the obvious like some blind sheep.

Interestingly, a previous championship close runner up has been very quiet this year. Poor old Massa. He's not been upset by other teams or results, he's got a great car... But he's suffering more than Fernando unfortunately. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at his management meetings.

[f1ea]

But the current Ferrari IS fast enough to win.

Fast enough to win... when RED BULL make mistakes
Which is why they need consistency. Getting good results consistently, plus the odd gift from RB's mistakes can win a championship ( see McL ). Missing golden opportunities...

[vaptin]

In light of recent events I think I can justify a bump.

I reckon they have a chance if they do well at Spa and Monza and manage along with the main challenge of catching the redbulls pace.

Stefano gave a speech to the team after sliverstone and it seems to have worked wonders.

Also stuff from Andrew Benson's blog on this subject: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/andrewbenson ... super.html

The Spaniard remains fifth in the championship but he is now only 20 points off the lead, with 25 available for each win, and looking dangerous.

Like it or not, then, the wisdom of Ferrari's decision to promote Alonso ahead of Massa to the win in Germany a week previously was made very clear by another weekend where Alonso left the Brazilian trailing.

That advantage, therefore, is unlikely to remain at every circuit - the gap has see-sawed throughout the season anyway, and I hear that Ferrari have some pretty major developments for the next race in Belgium on 29 August after the month-long summer break.

[f1ea]

Nice bump.

The WCC is lost for Ferrari. Both RBs are being simply on top of their game and Mclaren only needs to improve Jenson's Q and reverse his meltdown. Its prob down to the car, but still.... he needs to come to solid driving.

Massa is right now no match to any of the the 5 drivers who are all at their peak. He also seems to be working for Mclaren now almost let Lewis get P4 on him, in a race when Mc struggled and Lewis had a faulty driveshaft so, very little to do in the WCC.

Ferrari has a good chance at the WDC.
The F10C and Spa will be crucial. Good pace in Spa will probably mean at least decent pace in Japan, Interlagos, Abu dhabi and maybe Korea. If the upgrades work, then there's still a serious fight, thanks to the recent great results.
Monza and Singapore are strange tracks... so let's say do a great job, knowing it can be anybody's race.

I'll plug this quote here:

The Spaniard remains fifth in the championship but he is now only 20 points off the lead, with 25 available for each win, and looking dangerous.

Like it or not, then, the wisdom of Ferrari's decision to promote Alonso ahead of Massa to the win in Germany a week previously was made very clear by another weekend where Alonso left the Brazilian trailing.

No need to say anything more.

[Jamie]

Not yet, I think If they improve their set up. They can be within a 59% chance, high. But not high enough really!!

[f1ea]

Not yet, I think If they improve their set up. They can be within a 59% chance, high. But not high enough really!!

Sorry, but I dont understand what you mean...
Not yet out of the battles? or not yet in the fight? they can be within a 59% chance of what? because whoever wins 50% of the coming races will win the championship (drivers).

[Bubbie]

I think Ferrari have done a spectacular job recently to get up to the front of the grid. But I think their chances for a WDC or WCC will need to come not from wins, but from effective podiums. Also, don't write off Massa so quickly. He is making good points every race. He won't be WDC, but he will be crucial to Ferrari winning the WCC because he can pick up good points every race.

The Red Bull car has a huge advantage at high downforce circuits.

The McLaren has a huge advantage at high speed circuits.

Ferrari are somewhere in the middle, but what this means is that they can do well (even if they don't win the races) from good finishes in the remaining races. When the Red Bulls flounder, there's Ferrari picking up points their points. When the McLarens flounder, guess who will be there picking up their points.

[Hexagram]

Two races ago after Silverstone, I was starting to think Alonso was out of the championship.

Now two races later, he is looking dangerous.

Consistency will win this championship. Top 3 places for the rest of the season with hopefully 2 more wins will see Alonso take his 3rd WDC.

It's a pity about his mistakes at Oz, China and Monaco. You could even call Turkey a bit of a hiccup thanks to Qualifying P12. He could be leading the championship now had he been more "himself".

[smokin]

WMSC may have a say in Ferrari's chances. 43 points deducted could put a serious dent in their progress.

[Mr.Conte]

I believe it will take two things for Ferrari to win the driver's title; the MFG championship is gone for them.
1. Alonso must finish no less than 2nd the rest of the season with Massa picking up points in 3rd a 4th most of the time.
2. Red Bull must implode as they do sometimes with Webber and Vettel knocking each other out due to egos once or twice.

[f1ea]

It's a pity about his mistakes at Oz, China and Monaco. You could even call Turkey a bit of a hiccup thanks to Qualifying P12. He could be leading the championship now had he been more "himself".

maybe not Turkey as a 'mistake' per se... not even Monaco... but the rest were simply mistakes. Like Silverstone.

WMSC may have a say in Ferrari's chances. 43 points deducted could put a serious dent in their progress.

Won't happen. There's no way F1 will allow a decision to take out the Ferrari drivers out of WDC contention. That's what they wanted, a close and contested driver's champiobship? well, they got one. The team order rule is a farce. Bernie knows it, and everyone knows it. ferrari got a fine... they'll probably get another farcical punishent. Maybe WCC pts deduction at the most. And hopefully, the farce is removed or modified for next yr's rules.

I believe it will take two things for Ferrari to win the driver's title; the MFG championship is gone for them.
1. Alonso must finish no less than 2nd the rest of the season with Massa picking up points in 3rd a 4th most of the time.
2. Red Bull must implode as they do sometimes with Webber and Vettel knocking each other out due to egos once or twice.

Yeah, must get lots of podiums, and a couple wins. With Massa hopefully taking pts from Mclarens and from a Red Bull or two... so far, Massa's not been able to challenge any RB... so let's see how he improves.

[kerc]

WCC no. WDC, yes, with Alonso. As much as I dislike him, he's doing a pretty darn good job.

[madbrad]

Alonso could come in first and second for the rest of the season but it would take the macs and red bulls always finishing out of the podium as well, for him to get ahead.

[f1ea]

Alonso could come in first and second for the rest of the season but it would take the macs and red bulls always finishing out of the podium as well, for him to get ahead.

Kind of a long shot. But he's seriously in the fight. Massa needs to start taking pts off the other guys (because so far its not happened) or its going to be pretty much impossible.

I'd say:
- A couple of wins
- Mclaren to continue the struggle or at least not improve enough to be dominant in any race.
- Red Bull to have some internal issues and some reliability woes....
- Massa in the podium.

A long shot... but not impossible.

[smokin]

WCC no. WDC, yes, with Alonso. As much as I dislike him, he's doing a pretty darn good job.

My thoughts, almost word for word.