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[zurich_allan]

Simply can't vote. Not until I see the cars after the first race. What I would say is that I still think the Red Bull's will be at the top, though not with as much of an advantage as in 2010. I expect McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes to all be very close just behind. One of them may overtake Red Bull at the top, but I simply can't predict which. I have a gut feeling that it may be Mercedes for some reason...

I don't expect Webber to be as close to Vettel - I think 2010 was his chance as 2008 was for Massa. As such, sadly I'm personally (and I don't like it!) ruling out both Massa and Webber. I suspect it might come down to Vettel, Alonso, Lewis, Schumacher, Rosberg (yes Rosberg) and possibly Button. I can't see anyone else in the mix. Just an opinion which could be totally wrong. I'll decide again after

Bahrain.

Ahhh go ahead and vote, we're probably going to have another poll mid season as to who'll win anyway. Click the button in the name of fun... so if you're right, you'll feel good about it. If you're wrong, then we had fun in the interim.

Ah, ok then, I've stuck down a vote. Thought about it long and hard and at this stage I've gone for Hamilton.... but NOT for the reasons of many. What I've taken account of were thoughts on each of the drivers I mentioned earlier along with the situation I suspected with the teams:

1. I said I thought the Red Bulls would still be strong, though not dominant for the whole season as they were last. Given that I said I don't think Webber will be quite 'there' in 2011, I'm not choosing him. Although I still think Vettel may well take the title, in my mind he is stil very very much unproven when it comes to overtaking. Vettel is brilliant at dominating a race from pole to flag when he is unchallenged and can sail off into the distance. But we've still never seen him take a battling win from - say - 6th on the grid. For these reasons, he's not who I'd back this year IF the other teams are closer...

2. Regarding Ferrari, I've already talked about Massa, but for Alonso I think he could well yet again be in the mix. One thing I've said before and will repeat about Alonso though - I still love him as a racer, and still think he is the most complete driver on the grid by some margin. The problem in my eyes is that he has never returned to th consistency he enjoyed in 2005 & 2006. Back then, I had no hint of his highly emotionally charged temper, and he seemed to be a fully focussed racing machine. Something for me happened in 2007 and has been evident literally every season since. I don't know if he bought into his own hype (justified as it may be!), or if for some reason he has a problem controlling his emotions... I just don't know. As I say, it's very much my own opinion, but I just can't see him ever returning to being quite as consistent as he was in his championship years - something relating to focus, but I don't know what... He CAN do it, unquestionably, and I still think he's likely the best out there.... I don't know, I hope he proves me wrong.

3. Mercedes - an unknown quantity - the dark horses. If the team has developed in the right direction it could be in the mix. Schumi undoubtedly can do it in my eyes if the car is right. Thing is, we don't yet know if it will be. Given last year, if Schumi is there, Rosberg could be too, but as yet, it's not shown if he can consistently win. Could be that once he gets his first he goes on a run, but still to be seen. Both possibilities, but not favourites.... YET...

4. This leaves McLaren. Again, I think if the car is right, Button could be right in the mix - he's proven that in a car that suits his style, he can dominate. He's handled pressure and had a good first year with McLaren. The question is - will the McLaren be DOMINANT? I don't think so. I think they WILL be closer however, maybe equal or just ahead of the competition by the end of the season. Hamilton made some crucial mistakes last season (well actualy I think one - I think Webber was at fault in the other but that's just my opinion), but IF he has learned his lesson (not certain), he is proven as an overtaker, and can stick the McLaren where it shouldn't really be in the standings (see second half of 2009).

All of that said, at this very early stage, my guess would be Hamilton. As I say though, I'd likely say something very different after the first race or two of the season (as I'm sure most of you would).

[texasmr2]

One should never count out Hamilton nor Alonso imo but it will be two fold, first they must have a winning package and secondly their teams will need to be on the ball with strategy at tracks that are not suiting there car.

Of course I voted for Schumacher because I still believe he has what it takes, he has been my favorite driver since his first race and if Merc improved their package Schumacher could atleast fight for wins, I would be very content with just that.

[What's Burning?]

I also said Hamilton for very much the same reasoning you've outlined.

In my opinion, Webber and Button fall into the same category of being able to succeed in the right car. Button has the luxury now of being able to hang his hat on a world championship title that can never be taken away from him. But like Webber, I think they both are paired with a superior team mate as far as raw talent is concerned, and both would be capable of a WDC if they were given a clearly superior car and a less capable teammate as Button has already proven.

So it boils down to Alonso, Vettel, and Hamilton. Then it really further comes down to who has the better all around car, balance, speed, and reliability. I believe we'll have a season this year with a previous WDC walk away with another title and will narrow it down to these three. Ultimately I said Hamilton because I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the new MP4-26.

The dark horse of course is Mercedes and what they can bring to the horse race. My sentimental favorite is Rosberg, but I believe that if Schumacher has a superior car, he will be ruthless in his pursuit of the 8th.

As always, I'll be rooting for Sauber and Williams to be in the mix and hopefully score an odd podium. I believe they more than any other team currently represent the independent spirit of F1.

[texasmr2]

I always want Williams too succeed so I'm with ya there. The first race will be the tell tale sign of who has done their homework and I cannot wait!!

[vlad]

I think it will be the Pirelli tyres!
http://www.formula1.com/news/interviews/2011/2/11734.html

[FRAFPDD]

4th place retirement with engine problems in hungary
2nd place retirement from puncture in spain
knocked off track in australia by webber as he was about to overtake alonso
extra pit stop in australia(or china but im sure its australia) that almost definitely cost him a win
His own mistake in Monza from fourth place
Punted off track by Webber in Singapore
Losing a gear and a place in Japan

With a car that was either second or third best all year.

Finished mere 15 points off the WDC.

Im pretty sure that if this years Mclaren is anywhere near the same level as 2010, that amount of sheer bad fortune will not hit again.

The fact he would be world champion if only that one event ive highlighted shows why Hamilton should enter every year favourite IMO.

[f1ea]

The fact he would be world champion if only that one event ive highlighted shows why Hamilton should enter every year favourite IMO.

The same thing about a single event could be said about the top 4 drivers...... it was a close season, that's it; and it was close ONLY because Vettel had poor-ish reliability and made some silly mistakes.

[vlad]

The mechanical failures almost costed him his title...

[FRAFPDD]

The fact he would be world champion if only that one event ive highlighted shows why Hamilton should enter every year favourite IMO.

The same thing about a single event could be said about the top 4 drivers...... it was a close season, that's it; and it was close ONLY because Vettel had poor-ish reliability and made some silly mistakes.

No but the thing is it couldnt, i hate the If game cause it doesnt matter, but in this case for Hamilton its a great comparison point infact here below is the same sort of thing for each driver, now as we're talking about who should of won it, im not including mistakes, as thats the own drivers fault.

Hamilton:
Australia- punted off by webber, whilst in process of taking alonso
Australia- Random extra pit stop from Mclaren costs him probable win
Spain- 2nd place tyre puncture
Hungary- 4th place engine failure
Singapore- Punted off by Webber
Japan- loses gear and place to Jenson


Alonso:
Malaysia- Engine problems- Retirement

that is the only misfortune i can find at a brief check(im gonna edit and work out the points later) that was not his fault.


Vettel:
bahrain-engine problems, 4th place
australia, lost engine drive 25 points lost
canada-engine- 2nd to fourth
great britain- puncture 2nd t 7th
korea-engine 25 points lost

Webber:
Bahrain- problems-8th
Turkey- attaacked by teammate 1st-3rd
Germany-oil problem



In half of Hamiltons problems he full stop retired with no points, in half of vettels and webbers they lost positions but still had points,

Now considering the cars the latter two had all year and the space they finished above Hamilton, a mere 15 points, id say Hamilton had by far the worst luck of this season.

[f1ea]

Just because someone ended with 0 pts from an event, doesnt make it more of a misfortune than other happenings...

how come Hamilton's random pit in Australia is more of an unfortunate event, yet Alonso's Q run in Spa wasnt? or getting called in at Abu Dhabi? or getting punted by Barrichelo? or slamming Monaco in FP3, when if it had been FP2 it would have meant no problem at all, as lewis showed in Japan? How about catching the SC when the car immediately ahead passes it and gets a meaningless penalty? how about catching a penalty right when the SC comes out after passing a car that retired anyways?? how come Lewis missing a gear is an unfortunate event, yet whatever happened to the clutch at the start of some races for Alonso?

Why is getting hit by Webber in Singapore less fortunate than Vettel getting hit in Turkey? Why is Vettel missing the SC distance in Hungary a non-event? its even a LESSER violation than overtaking the SC...

In the end, Lewis' mistakes were more of a repeat scenario than 99% of all the others mistakes/misfortunes i mentioned above. I mean... how many times has a driver missed the SC distance??!! while: how many times has Lewis punctured a tire?

People can find 'their' reason for anything. That's the way i see it..............

[FRAFPDD]

Just because someone ended with 0 pts from an event, doesnt make it more of a misfortune than other happenings...

how come Hamilton's random pit in Australia is more of an unfortunate event, yet Alonso's Q run in Spa wasnt? or getting called in at Abu Dhabi? or getting punted by Barrichelo? or slamming Monaco in FP3, when if it had been FP2 it would have meant no problem at all, as lewis showed in Japan? How about catching the SC when the car immediately ahead passes it and gets a meaningless penalty? how about catching a penalty right when the SC comes out after passing a car that retired anyways?? how come Lewis missing a gear is an unfortunate event, yet whatever happened to the clutch at the start of some races for Alonso?

Why is getting hit by Webber in Singapore less fortunate than Vettel getting hit in Turkey? Why is Vettel missing the SC distance in Hungary a non-event? its even a LESSER violation than overtaking the SC...

In the end, Lewis' mistakes were more of a repeat scenario than 99% of all the others mistakes/misfortunes i mentioned above. I mean... how many times has a driver missed the SC distance??!! while: how many times has Lewis punctured a tire?

People can find 'their' reason for anything. That's the way i see it..............

Lewis didnt puncture a tire, it punctures through no fault of his own. Theres things i missed out of lewis still then if i factor your criteria in, like being the only one out of Alonso himself Vettel and Webber to be seriously affected by bbeing held up by Hulkenburg in Brazil. Im not factoring in things that drivers could of helped. Or else i could factor in Lewis choosing a different wing in Monza that ultiamtely could have seenhim win the race, see?

Ive listed the things were purely down to bad luck, which si why they are all pretty muxh mechanical failures, or decisions taken by someone other then the driver. And bad luck is the thing that is least likely to stick with a driver throughout the career and as such is the biggest abnormality in determining performances in F1. Hamiltons was by far the worst, even if hes luck was as bad as Vettels problems, the latter had a car that could easily take pole for any race it would hold up for. Hamilton didnt have that luxury. This all boils down to why i think Hamilton will win in 2011, rather then why he should have won in 2010, but my reasoning for him winning in 2011, is based on 2010 and i therefore had to mention these things. You could use the same argument for Alonso.

"Arguing is the tactical display of facts"

and thats what ive done in backing up my prediction for 2011. thats all. The right man won in 2010.

[f1ea]

Lewis didnt puncture a tire, it punctures through no fault of his own. Theres things i missed out of lewis still then if i factor your criteria in, like being the only one out of Alonso himself Vettel and Webber to be seriously affected by bbeing held up by Hulkenburg in Brazil. Im not factoring in things that drivers could of helped. Or else i could factor in Lewis choosing a different wing in Monza that ultiamtely could have seenhim win the race, see?

They were all behind HUlkenberg, but Lewis was the one to get stuck because the others were able to pass him.

But in any case.... right now pretty much ALL of them have about a similar possibility for WDC

The ones i see with the better possibilities are: Vettel (i think the gap between him and Webber will be bigger than last yr), Alonso (with the gap to Massa smaller), Lewis and Button (i think these 2 will be actually closer).

[vaptin]

You've missed quite a few of Alonso's, getting stuck behind the safety car, had some sort of tangle at the start of Sliverstone, quali in Spa when he was caught out by the rain, Abu Dhabi of course, that pit stop was worse than Lewis's in Australia.

The back markers at Canada?

[Flux]

all of the top drivers could win it, at the start of 2010 did you think the title race would be so close for so long ? i didn't. i would like lewis to, but seb and fernando really were on fire at the end of 2010

[myownalias]

You can talk about last years triumphs and failures as much as you want but none of that is relevant to the 2011 season. We have new regulations and new tyres, last years form book could be turned on it's head especially with the new Pirelli tyres, it looks like the Pirelli's (at the behest of the FIA) wont reward aggressive drivers like Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso which might let in Mark Webber, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg. Personally I would like to see Rosberg do well in 2011, he impressed me last year, hence why I voted for him, although whether he stands a chance depends on Ross Brawn churning out another one of his championship winning cars!