Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Did Nicos quali success cost him the WDC?

Nico knowingly ignored race day in favour of quali glory
1
11%
Nico fell for the bait of Saturday glory thinking he was getting one over on Lewis
6
67%
Nah, drivers dont think like this - its just coincidence - Lewis and Toto were lying when they said his car was setup for race
0
No votes
Not another fricken poll, gimme a break my head hurts from the last one
2
22%
 
Total votes: 9

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Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

Very simple supposition, we have seen that Nico didnt really have an answer to Lewis on raceday, despite matching and bettering Lewis on the final quali lap almost every race recently

Toto confirmed it yesterday and Lewis confirmed it today on the podium - Lewis and his engineers 'got the car right for raceday and so quali mistakes were irrelevant' - Lewis said this, Fact

Did Nico get seduced by the glory of Saturday pole position, deviously encouraged by Lewis, diverting him from race setup, and leading to absolutely no chsnce against a guy with better racecraft?
lets face it a less astute (but not quite a thicko) fan would think pole is the end all and be all in a dominant team with only your teammate to beat, but when racecraft is unequal surely Nico should have abandoned quali position in favour of a more competitive race setup to have any chance on Sunday against a superior driver?
And why didnt Rosberg wise up to this devious ploy and adapt?
Or did Nico knowingly settle for the quali trophy earlier and hope for luck on Sundays to beat Lewis?

Following subsequent interviews where Lewis confirms a structured strategy and hints as a little subterfuge I infer the following caper

After the radio ban, no instructions are allowed to driver over radio about others setup - only in the pit
So the only privacy Lewis had from Nico copying his setup was at the final setup before parc ferme
This is therefore either just before Q3, or more commonly just before the last Q3 run
That means once its setup and Lewis leaves the pit - preferably last - There is no more chance for Nico to look at lewis data and copy setup before the race - Remeber any other time in practice or Q1, Nico, once back in the pit, can simply check what Lewis had done most recently and copy it
So Lewis would gather long run data and quali run data and then all through the sessions leading up to Q3 he would setup for optimally quali run, Nico would do the same gravitating towards which way Lewis was converging with his settings - So we would see Lewis go fastest first as he gets setup right much much quicker than Nico, with Nico trying stuff then settling for Lewis'
And then at the last moment maybe even as Nico was heading out first, all gung ho, the crafty Lewis would change to his optimal long run setup - obviously this would be planned with his side to be doable in the time
The result would be Nico going out on a quali optimised setup and going all out encouraged by his increasing 'quali prowess' and eager to get one up on Lewis
And Lewis would go out with a setup that would cause him to be say half a sec slower on setup, and he would rag his disposable tyres and invariably make the errors we expect from setup, nothing major, just little surprises
Then in the race we would see Nico lock his brakes regularly early - a sign of a setup not optimised for full tanks etc, and he increasingly has tyre issues, and is normally worse in the first half - on a heavy fuel load

So a clear choice
Last edited by CookinFlat6 on 25 Nov 14, 23:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by What's Burning? »

I would have said no at first, but during the post race Lewis mentioned a shift on the weekend's approach post Spa which he felt allowed him the run of wins. It doesn't matter at this point I guess. Nico has his Q trophy, Lewis has his 2n'd WDC, and Mercedes has everything else.

I want to hear more talk about Red Bull's wing, no way the teams should let this drop. I hope we hear lots more about it over the winter. :cloud9: I wonder if OB considers that cheating? Anybody seen Roth? Not even the decency to show up and congratulate Lewis since was supposed to be such a fan? :confused:

Races are won on Sunday but Nico did raise his level of game play this year for sure.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

yeah, its strange how the most opinionated members about how this season has and will pan out and how Nico will blahblahblah at the end dont have the guts or the integrity to add the conclusions to their season judgements.

Seb got spanked even though he started ahead again, this race for me wasnt even about if ricc would beat him, Its was by how much Ricc would beat him, and when i saw Seb losing the rear after losing a fight with grip, same as Button did at one stage, and i compare that to how Lewis and Ricc both drifted/dominated their gripless rears round the same corners over the weekend, and Kimis disgraceful showing, I am shocked

If someone said earlier in the season that Seb was strong mentally and that allowed him to get away with 'temporarily been trashed by his near rookie teammate, and that lewis was weak mentally because he made mistakes in quali - we would expect them to come back to give the final verdict

I notice Overboost was able to join the party and find a way to stick to his partyline - better than heading for the hills :thumbup:

I just wish Watson, Brundle, Coulthard, Hill, Stewart et al could vote in this poll
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by racechick »

I think Nico knows he's good over one lap, and has maximised that by going for a quali set up. He also knows that if Lewis is ahead he is unlikely to be able to get past him so he has to go for the pole, it's his best shot. Even though his conversion rate is poor, it's better than his overtaking Lewis rate.
Lewis said earlier in the year that there was only one prize he wanted and that was the championship, and he would be prepared to sacrifice lesser things to get the bigger prize. He also said he'd learnt that going for a good quali set up has cost him in the past and So he'd rethought things. I read in the paper on sat before quali that he had a plan and he'd been working on it with his team. And in the practise sessions he was doing good long runs. So yes, I think Nico goes for a quali set up because it plays best to his skills and Lewis goes more for a race set up because he has better racecraft and can sustain blistering pace when needed over several laps.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

I hear you RC, but if I was Nico, and my strentgh was qualifying then I would be concentrating more on maximising my relative weak side - the race, especially if each race is about 50 laps more than quali and is where the WDC points are handed out. I would want to pour all available resources into this side and look to improve or strengthen asap.
Even if I had a 50/50 chance of winning from pole (which Nico definitely does not) thern it would make sense to transfer the resources to the area I was losing in.

If i really wanted to challenge for the WDC or thought I was as good as the other guy

So if i concentrate on quali succes - an area I am able to win at if I focus on, but an area that brings zero points to the WDC AND in doing so makes me even weaker than the other guy for whom this is a major strength

So either Nico aint that cerebral, or he knows he cannot ever beat Lewis on Sundays or he was tricked into transferring all his reserve resources into an area he already held (same as first choice really)

Its got to be one or the other
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by sagi58 »

CookinFlat6 wrote:...I notice Overboost was able to join the party and find a way to stick to his partyline - better than heading for the hills :thumbup: ...


To whom is that directed?
Or are you going to hide behind that indirect nature of that purposefully
written comment and think no one is going to call you out on it?
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by Hammer278 »

I think Nico made the smart call, at least he made sure he got some sort of trophy this season. Probably never believed he could beat Lewis in races anyway.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by RyRy »

I believe they both had similar setups but the only reason Hamilton lost the qualli battle this year was because of some reliability and a lot of small mistakes here and there. Considering Lewis said this WDC means and meant more than his first I would guess he was under a lot of pressure, we know he puts a ton of pressure on himself anyway so I would say this is the cause.

If you look at well over half of the qualli sessions where Rosberg got pole position and look at everyone's potential best lap (all 3 sectors hooked up) Lewis was actually faster on qualifying day so over an entire race where a mistake here and there doesn't make much difference and has no where near the same pressures as qualifying he relaxed and drove the races much much better overtaking the pole sitter with drives that were pretty flawless.

Rosberg's fast and he's a good teammate for Hamilton but I still think Hamilton is significantly faster than him.

I personally feel if Mercedes had tried to get Button aswell as Hamilton then they would have won every single race and been way more evenly matched as the car was lovely and balanced (Hamilton said it was the most balanced car he's ever driven) and the bond between the British drivers is second to none, just look at Silverstone when Hamilton messed up qualli... the banter between the two drivers and the obvious respect for eachother was so easy to see and hear and then you look at the race as soon as Hamilton came up to Button the British patriotism from Button came out and he just let Hamilton drive by didn't even try to hold him off because he knew he wasn't racing Hamilton and because he'd much rather a British driver win than a German.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by racechick »

I can understand where you're coming from RyRy, but i beg to disagree with this one. Button has offered much support to Lewis this season and he's praised him highly, that of course raises his own stock with no downside. when they were actually team mates at McLaren that support wasnt there and Jenson set about building the whole team around himself and isolated Lewis within the team. OK he had a useless TP at McLaren who aided and abetted with drooling excitement, which clearly isnt the case at Mercedes, but nevertheless I suspect Jenson would have employed his silky tongue and political savy for all it was worth.
That aside, Jenson was nowhere near Lewis in quali stats, the area where Rosberg did take it Lewis this year.

I agree that the quali stats are skewed somewhat in Rosberg's favour. Lewis was tricked out of Monaco, had a brake explode and an engine fire. Thats three poles., lets assume Lewis got those three ( im pretty sure he'd have had the fire and brake one, Monacco could have gone either way), that would be three more to Lewis' tally and three off Rosberg's. Suddenly the picture looks very different. But those aside, Rosberg kept Lewis honest, there were times he beat him fair and square in quali and that's no mean fete (feat? feet?)against Lewis. He made the season exciting and I believe his stock has been raised considerably by his performances this year.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by Ferrari man 009 »

racechick wrote:I agree that the quali stats are skewed somewhat in Rosberg's favour. Lewis was tricked out of Monaco, had a brake explode and an engine fire. Thats three poles., lets assume Lewis got those three ( im pretty sure he'd have had the fire and brake one, Monacco could have gone either way), that would be three more to Lewis' tally and three off Rosberg's. Suddenly the picture looks very different. But those aside, Rosberg kept Lewis honest, there were times he beat him fair and square in quali and that's no mean fete (feat? feet?)against Lewis. He made the season exciting and I believe his stock has been raised considerably by his performances this year.


With all due respect racechick, i'm not sure you can actually say Hamilton would definitely have got those poles. Especially if we look towards the end of the season and the amount of scruffy laps or mistakes Hamilton made in Q3.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by racechick »

Ferrari man 009 wrote:
racechick wrote:I agree that the quali stats are skewed somewhat in Rosberg's favour. Lewis was tricked out of Monaco, had a brake explode and an engine fire. Thats three poles., lets assume Lewis got those three ( im pretty sure he'd have had the fire and brake one, Monacco could have gone either way), that would be three more to Lewis' tally and three off Rosberg's. Suddenly the picture looks very different. But those aside, Rosberg kept Lewis honest, there were times he beat him fair and square in quali and that's no mean fete (feat? feet?)against Lewis. He made the season exciting and I believe his stock has been raised considerably by his performances this year.


With all due respect racechick, i'm not sure you can actually say Hamilton would definitely have got those poles. Especially if we look towards the end of the season and the amount of scruffy laps or mistakes Hamilton made in Q3.


But it wasn't the end of the season, and it was two tracks he aces.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by What's Burning? »

Ferrari man 009 wrote:
racechick wrote:I agree that the quali stats are skewed somewhat in Rosberg's favour. Lewis was tricked out of Monaco, had a brake explode and an engine fire. Thats three poles., lets assume Lewis got those three ( im pretty sure he'd have had the fire and brake one, Monacco could have gone either way), that would be three more to Lewis' tally and three off Rosberg's. Suddenly the picture looks very different. But those aside, Rosberg kept Lewis honest, there were times he beat him fair and square in quali and that's no mean fete (feat? feet?)against Lewis. He made the season exciting and I believe his stock has been raised considerably by his performances this year.


With all due respect racechick, i'm not sure you can actually say Hamilton would definitely have got those poles. Especially if we look towards the end of the season and the amount of scruffy laps or mistakes Hamilton made in Q3.

You couldn't say Rosberg would have gotten them either. At the very least in an apples to apples comparison you'd take two poles away from Rosberg and it then becomes 7 to 9, not 7 to 11.

it doesn't matter since whatever Lewis did, worked for him and in the end I'm sure Rosberg would have rather taken the race win stats over the pole win stats. Or at least I think he would have.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by LH44 »

I think fuel consumption in race trim gave a strong indication of how both drivers set their car up. Rosberg was consistently using more fuel. Even in Brazil when Lewis closed down the seven second gap after the spin with blistering laps his fuel readings were better than Rosberg's.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by LH44 »

Jenson looks to be a better racer than Rosberg but quali wouldn't have been as close as it was with Nico, which would've left him a mountain to climb on race days. People forget how bad Jenson was in 2012 because the useless TP focused development on helping him overcome his issues rather than the championship. Toto and Nikki know what's up though. I don't think they would've allowed Mercedes to become as cliquey as McLaren was under Whitmarsh. It's easy to see how attentive and professional the McLaren garage has become since Ron took over. No silly mistakes and PR bullpoo. Magnussen has been given a fair crack and no one destroyed his confidence by hanging him out to dry in public when he started getting post race penalties for hard racing. Everything, including Alonso's imminent arrival, has been kept behind closed doors and that's what McLaren is all about.
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Re: Did Lewis outsmart Nico over quali success?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

Ferrari man 009 wrote:
With all due respect racechick, i'm not sure you can actually say Hamilton would definitely have got those poles. Especially if we look towards the end of the season and the amount of scruffy laps or mistakes Hamilton made in Q3.


nononono :nono: ferrariman in the second half of the season (after the radio ban) Lewis was setting his car up for the race and not quali and was doing this before the final Q3 run to prevent Nico copying him. In this way he encouraged Nico to setup like he did for quali, but only up to the Q3 run. This was why lewis was invariable quick and mistake free until the final quali run or Q3 itself. Nico didnt change his setup for Q3 and therefore had the great Quali setup that Lewis appeared to have gone for
Then come the race Lewis had a car that allowed him to drive how he wanted and how Nico couldnt adapt to in a month of Sundays. This is why we see many more lockups etc from Nico in the race, and it is why Lewis' car in Q3 ONLY was not as perfectly setup as Nicos

Lewis is not a show off and has not explained it to those who dont see these things clearly, however TOTO let the cat out the bag after the race, and Lewis himself said his side of the car had got the car perfect on sundays which is whgere it matters and therefore he didnt care that Nico had been better on saturdays

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