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[CookinFlat6]

So we are close enough to start thinking about the race. We have seen different reliability stages and we are now seeing different performance from those who have mastered the full race reliability.

So assuming most teams are going to finish, how many do you think will finish on the lead lap? Or put another way, will the winner lap the field? or will it be both drivers in one team?

Poll to run till just after the Aus race

[1Lemon]

It's the fork vote!

[LewEngBridewell]

It's the fork vote!

Not any more!

1-10?

[Hammer278]

Went for 1-6......

Renault has 6 cars, I see 1 Caterham finishing the race like 5 laps behind the leaders.

Ferrari should have about 3-4 cars finishing....with 1 on the lead lap. I expect bad luck for 1 Ferrari mainly due to lack of running.

Mercedes should have at least 1 of their cars finishing and winning (f**k yeah), 1 McLaren finishing and on the lead lap, 1 Force India (though not on lead lap). Williams could finish with at least a car, but not on the lead lap.

That makes a total of 3 on the lead lap. Thinking positively, Merc and McLaren finishing with both, it's still only 5 cars on the lead lap.

Damn...what a race in prospect.

[operaman]

Although I expect Mercedes to dominate the first race, I doubt the gaps will fully reflect this. Safety cars (a likelihood) will allow the slowpokes to close up, and the backmarkers to get back on the lead lap. In addition, Mercedes will be eager for a 1-2 finish to start the season and will probably put limits on their drivers and cars, ordering them to back off and maintain the gap (enough for an extra pitstop) once it has been established. Unlike a certain 4x WDC, the Mercedes drivers are team players. Only thing I can see changing Mercedes' strategy is if they face a challenge from another team. At this point I don't see that happening.

On the lead lap: Mercedes (2), McLaren (2), Ferrari (2), Williams (1), Force India (1).

Of course if we have changing conditions .... all bets are off.

[CookinFlat6]

Well put operaman

[operaman]

Well put operaman

Sadly it means we might not see any racing for the first few races.

[CookinFlat6]

Christian Horner, the world champions’ team principal, said based on their analysis Mercedes could finish two laps ahead of the rest of the field at the season-opener in Melbourne on Sunday, an even greater margin of victory than the one enjoyed by Sebastian Vettel at the end of 2013.

Maybe he means 2 laps ahead of his team, surely not the other Merc engined teams

Probably just a wind up

[Jabberwocky]

I think the Mercedes could lap everyone however I think it would be foolish to push the cars so unnecessarily.

Sent using NCC-1701

[1Lemon]

I think the Mercedes could lap everyone however I think it would be foolish to push the cars so unnecessarily.

Sent using NCC-1701

Interesting stat, the Merc might not have such an advantage over the rest of the field as we think.

(Going by memory here so no specifics) Looking at Rosberg's fastest (In terms of lap times) race simulation, compared to Bottas's; Rosberg was in average around 1.2 ish seconds faster, however he did 4 stops whereas Bottas only did 2. Also taking into account some teams are saying that although the deg on the new tyres isn't as bad, the lap time drop off is more severe, we might find the front runners are closer than you think.

[LiamCatterson]

Over ten cars will finish I believe. I believe the reports about the final bunch of cars will be under ten is greatly exaggerated but we'll see...I don't want to see a carnage of cars being out but I want some action at least. We need more unpredictability and we seem to be getting that. Nobody is safe however

[Hammer278]

I'd like to change my answer from 1-10 seeing as RB seems to have gotten their sh!t together a bit.

[1Lemon]

I'd like to change my answer from 1-10 seeing as RB seems to have gotten their sh!t together a bit.

Too late, you made your bed!

[CookinFlat6]

If we look at the Bahrain testing times vs last years race weekend the difference in fastest times is much much less than the difference we have seen in Aus fp 13 vs 14

Therefore those that did well in testing did not use full power as a precaution to lengthy repairs etc and are keeping the powered dry for quali, whereas those that failed to test in Bahrain are on full power with nothing to lose

I expect the RBR to drop another second at least to the front in quali. I cannot believe that RBR are now quicker than a Mclaren for example

[NHcheese]

I think that speed only plays a small role, imagine who will run out of fuel