Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Will Mercedes win at least 1 Championship in 2014?

Poll ended at 26 Feb 14, 15:32

FO SHO!
2
11%
Most likely yes
7
39%
Most likely no
4
22%
Definitely not
1
6%
Great...another Merc topic, stfu already H278
4
22%
 
Total votes: 18

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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by spankyham »

CookinFlat6 wrote:Common spanks, live dangerously, let your hair down a bit, grab your balls and jump over the edge.

:hehe: I'll speculate, but I need something to work with. I don't count what we have so far

CookinFlat6 wrote:.... if I gave you $100 only for a bet, would you bet against Merc?

I'd keep the hundred.... and invite you to share a few sherbets with me
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by acosmichippo »

CookinFlat6 wrote:...there have to be good reasons to put money on them failing to improve from 2nd to first


this is where I fundamentally disagree. I would say "There have to be good reasons to put money on them improving from 2nd to 1st." Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

I agree with spanky in taking these engine rumors with a big handful of salt. But even if we assume that Renualt is further behind Merc, that still leaves Ferrari, who have hugely upgraded their driver lineup from last year. Kimi and Alonso have been the most consistent point scorers after Vettel in the last couple years.

That alone gives me enough reason to think Merc's chances of winning are less than 50%, and we haven't even factored in any of the other teams, however unlikely it is that they'd win.
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by myownalias »

I voted definitely no; because I believe that the likes of Ferrari will be there or thereabouts; and I believe Ferrari have the strongest driver lineup in 2014; also at this point I would not bet against Adrian Newey creating another wonder-car for Vettel in 2014, allied to the Renault lump in the back, the French team jumped on the V6T development straight away while other manufacturers were still arguing about the change from V8 to V6. Of course the biggest pack shuffler will be the Pirelli tyres; nobody knows how they will perform when we go racing in Australia!
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

spankyham wrote:
CookinFlat6 wrote:.... if I gave you $100 only for a bet, would you bet against Merc?

I'd keep the hundred.... and invite you to share a few sherbets with me


You'll need the 100, I drink more than a few at one sitting :hehe:
:drink: :drink: :drink:

acosmichippo wrote:I agree with spanky in taking these engine rumors with a big handful of salt. But even if we assume that Renualt is further behind Merc, that still leaves Ferrari, who have hugely upgraded their driver lineup from last year. Kimi and Alonso have been the most consistent point scorers after Vettel in the last couple years.


This is assuming that the drivers will be the big differentiator. Recent history tells us Ferrari have not won anything despite having the best driver driving his socks off. Lets assume the engines turn out all equal then we are left with the chassis and drivers. Ferrari have tended to go backward whilst Merc have gone forward in the most appropriate reference period - last year, so rationally we cannot assume Ferrari will beat Merc as the driver lineups are arguably as good as each other.
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by spankyham »

CookinFlat6 wrote:
spankyham wrote:
CookinFlat6 wrote:.... if I gave you $100 only for a bet, would you bet against Merc?

I'd keep the hundred.... and invite you to share a few sherbets with me


You'll need the 100, I drink more than a few at one sitting :hehe:
:drink: :drink: :drink:


100 goes a long way in my neck of the woods. And the eye candy is provided gratis :hehe:
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by acosmichippo »

CookinFlat6 wrote:This is assuming that the drivers will be the big differentiator. Recent history tells us Ferrari have not won anything despite having the best driver driving his socks off.


But the point is now they have Alonso AND Kimi. Surely you can imagine that they probably would have had a significantly larger haul of points if they had Kimi in 2012 and 2013 instead of Massa.

CookinFlat6 wrote:Ferrari have tended to go backward whilst Merc have gone forward in the most appropriate reference period - last year, so rationally we cannot assume Ferrari will beat Merc as the driver lineups are arguably as good as each other.


And then there's Red Bull who beat the pants off both of them last year. Can't have it both ways.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they don't have a legitimate shot, I just don't see enough evidence to put the odds of them beating everyone else above 50%.
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by sagi58 »

And, she goes with "definitely not", for TWO (well, three) reasons:

1) Image

2) Image

3) Image
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by Hammer278 »

sagi58 wrote:And, she goes with "definitely not", for TWO (well, three) reasons:

1) Image

2) Image

3) Image


All good Sagi, as long as you continue participating in the forumula1 pool predictions. :P
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by LiamCatterson »

Well we don't know if Mercedes will be indeed the best car out there. Hopefully anyone but Red Bull but Mercedes does seem to be the strong favourites out there. We'll just have to see how their in-season testing and first race does. I am all for Ferrari as usual and hopefully, Ferrari will show a big improvement so if anything, obviously I'll prefer Ferrari over any team really. I just hope we see more competition this year and not Mercedes being the new Red Bull (a.k.a having fans moan that it's boring and too predictable)
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

LiamCatterson wrote:I just hope we see more competition this year and not Mercedes being the new Red Bull (a.k.a having fans moan that it's boring and too predictable)


We should have what we have traditionally had in the best and most memorable seasons - 2 good drivers allowed to compete in the same team. RBR dont play like that which is why the last year especially was so dreary.

But even if the Mercs are 2 secs a lap quicker than the rest, we will have a Lewis vs Nico fight, David vs Goliath, WDC vs non WDC, German vs Brit, pop vs rap, etc etc etc
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by What's Burning? »

I'm betting Mercedes geared the car a lot more towards Lewis' likings where the brakes are concerned. Another byproduct of the reduced aero dependency front and rear is that we'll be able to see cars with their noses further up the lead car for passing. Something that was difficult to do the last few seasons without destroying your tires.

I think Merc have as good a chance if not better than both Ferrari and RBR, to win a championship. The RBR dominance with a car perfectly suited for Vettel didn't start in 2009 or 2010. It evolved and took 3 years into it until Vettel's first dominant season.

So it's clear that the genius of AD is not about getting a monster out if the gate, but refining a good design into a great design. Brawn on the other hand has a pretty good record of out of the gate strong designs.
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by operaman »

CookinFlat6 wrote:
LiamCatterson wrote:I just hope we see more competition this year and not Mercedes being the new Red Bull (a.k.a having fans moan that it's boring and too predictable)


We should have what we have traditionally had in the best and most memorable seasons - 2 good drivers allowed to compete in the same team. RBR dont play like that which is why the last year especially was so dreary.

But even if the Mercs are 2 secs a lap quicker than the rest, we will have a Lewis vs Nico fight, David vs Goliath, WDC vs non WDC, German vs Brit, pop vs rap, etc etc etc


I disagree. The best seasons for me have been team vs team, with both drivers allowed to race. My favs are the 2007, 2008 seasons where Ferrari and McLaren did battle. This year I would love to see Ferrari and Mercedes in the same sort of fight.
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by Hammer278 »

operaman wrote:
CookinFlat6 wrote:
LiamCatterson wrote:I just hope we see more competition this year and not Mercedes being the new Red Bull (a.k.a having fans moan that it's boring and too predictable)


We should have what we have traditionally had in the best and most memorable seasons - 2 good drivers allowed to compete in the same team. RBR dont play like that which is why the last year especially was so dreary.

But even if the Mercs are 2 secs a lap quicker than the rest, we will have a Lewis vs Nico fight, David vs Goliath, WDC vs non WDC, German vs Brit, pop vs rap, etc etc etc


I disagree. The best seasons for me have been team vs team, with both drivers allowed to race. My favs are the 2007, 2008 seasons where Ferrari and McLaren did battle. This year I would love to see Ferrari and Mercedes in the same sort of fight.


I'd go for that. Lewis VS Alonso never gets old, and as a Lewis fan I think of Alonso as the Agent Smith to Matrix's Neo. :hehe:
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by CookinFlat6 »

It would be great to have a Merc vs Ferrari close battle as all 4 drivers are fighters. However with the new engine stakes a lot depends on the engine makers. Therefore I think its more likely we see either a Ferrari domination in the early stages, which at least gives us Kimi vs Alonso.
More likely I think is a Merc domination with Hulkenburg in the Force India as the outside shot at the WDC

Exciting stuff, as it should be before a real match - uncertainty and anticipation
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Re: Who's betting against Mercedes for a 2014 Championship?

Post by 1Lemon »

The factory teams have an advantage, but there are so many variables really anyone could win a championship this year. Nothing is stopping Caterham having a stroke of genius and designing a car that does every race as a 1 stop, or has 25% more downforce than everyone else etc.
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