Autosprint and RAI are reporting really big upgrades and developments for Ferrari in Spain. First thing to remember is that all teams traditionally bring a major upgrade to this race. It is the first "local" so to speak race after the initial "fly away" events. It also represents enough time to make some significant changes and test them in theory. So we should be very aware that the other teams also plan major upgrades and improvements.
Having said that, the changes and upgrades the Italian media is talking about, is, for me, at the top end of what you might even hope for. They say that not only have we already undergone and passed a full FiA crash test (that means a new chassis) but that we have another crash test slated before Spain. They also say that we have another round of already FiA approved engine upgrades (as does Renault). So that means new chassis and engine changes. Add to that floor, nose front wing and rear wing. That is a huge number of upgrades to bring. They also say that these all build on the F14T which Maranello still believes is fundamentally a good enough car to still win with - interesting.
If most of these upgrades eventuate and "if" they bring improvements then expect to see the monkey seat appear. I believe when we see that as a regular part of the car we can then believe they are finally running our PU at close to maximum power. RAI are saying we are running at something like 80% and expect that to go to 90% for Spain. That will be easy to prove/test on Saturday when we compare top speeds on the long Barcelona straight.
I'm keeping my hopes well in check - realistically, if we can improve to be within .7 of Merc that would be an amazing effort and turnaround. It would also mean we are one small improvement away from putting race pressure on the leaders and giving ourselves a chance at a win.
IF all of this is accurate, I would expect Alonso to be on the podium again. Other than Bahrain, where the Ferrari was mugged by the Merc cars and lost out to RB with the safety car (same as Williams), Alonso's results have been 4th, 4th, 3rd - showing that he is consistently getting the best out of the car again. Alonso is the best driver on the grid which means Ferrari dont need the best car, they just need to get within 0.2-0.5 of the fastest as proved in 2010 and 2012.